Scenario forecast of changes of the water balance components in the Ob-Irtysh river basin in connection with potential climate change

Abstract

An intergovernmental group of experts on climate control obtained the forecast options of the dynamics for the weather components of the Ob-Irtysh river basin in the XXI century for four global climatic scenarios of the family “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” complying with the set scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the civilization, which served as the basin for the estimation of the options of possible changes of the water balance components of the specified river basic up to the middle of the XXI century. The calculation technique is based on using the physically based model of heat and mass exchange between the land surface and atmosphere SWAP and the climatic scenarios generator MAGICC/SCENGEN. The changes of the annual flow of the Ob river due to potential global climate changes were compared herein with its natural fluctuations caused by the weather noise.