Scenario Modeling of Sustainable Development of Energy Supply in the Arctic

Abstract

The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply, like many others, is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent, this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources, taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers, available technologies, and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios, up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas, but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers, which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition, authors’ forecasts, through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region, can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development, taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as identifying areas of technology and energy infrastructure stimulation.

Mathematical modeling of energy consumption in the production of hydrogen

“…Methods of mathematical statistics, factorial and regression analysis are used for the experimental study of the power consumption of consumers of the power plant [19][20][21][22]. The measurements were carried out during the implementation of an energy survey of a non-ferrous metallurgy enterprise using modern measuring systems [8][9][10][11]24].…”

Computation of Nonlinear Load Harmonic Currents in the Presence of External Distortions

“…Harmonic currents flow through power lines and transformers, causing a non-sinusoidal voltage drop, thereby degrading the power quality [7]. It is necessary to calculate the operating modes of the consumers and grids with degraded power quality indicators in order to determine the parameters of harmonic reduction devices [8], to predict power quality indicators depending on load parameters [9], determine negative impact of distortions on electrical equipment [10], determine power losses [11], etc. The correctness of such operating modes modeling in many respects is determined by the accepted model of nonlinear load [12,13].…”

An assessment of the share contributions of distortion sources for various load parameters

“…For example, the method for determining the consumers` contribution to voltage distortion, approved in 2002 in Russia, was canceled due to incorrect identification of distortion sources based on the method of switching on and off the load [10]. A large number of works are devoted to techniques based on the analysis of harmonic power flows and based on the determination of the phase shift angle between voltage and current at the harmonic 951 frequency [16]- [19]. A number of works provide a mathematical description of the processes confirming the inoperability of this method [20], [21].…”