Scenario Modelling in Prospective LCA of Transport Systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis (11 pp)

Abstract

depth analysis of the future development of each single unit process, while still accounting for the requirements of the final scenario integration. Due to its high transparency, the procedure supports the validation of LCI results. Furthermore, it is wellsuited for incorporation into participatory methods so as to increase their credibility. Outlook and Future Work. Thus far, the proposed approach is only applied on a vehicle level not taking into account alterations in demand and use of different transport modes. Future projects will enhance the approach by tackling uncertainties in technology assessment of future transport systems. For instance, environmental interventions involving future maglev technology will be assessed so as to account for induced traffic generated by the introduction of a new transport system.

Problem structuring for transitions: The case of Swiss waste management

“…One possibility is, for instance, utilizing the results in scenario analysis, which is a frequently used approach in transition management [5,7,10]. Thereby, the identified impact factors can be utilized for formative scenario construction [20,61]; in addition, the provided overall vision can be used for intuitive scenario definition. Further, the relevance judgments of the impact factors regarding both short-and long-term perspectives offer first evidence on the temporal dynamics and help in considering different planning horizons.…”

Sustainability Potential Analysis (SPA) of landfills – a systemic approach: theoretical considerations

“…[51]). Recent studies have shown the potential of combining LCA with other methods, such as life cycle costing [52] or formative scenario analysis [53].…”

Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: What Is It and What Are Its Challenges?

“…For policy development, we need to analyse all possible direct and indirect consequences of potential policy options using life cycle-based scenario analysis for which CLCA, BLCSA, FLCSA and other scenariobased life cycle approaches (e.g. Spielmann et al 2005 ;Hertwich et al 2014 ;Koning et al 2015 ) are best suited. For monitoring existing, accepted policies, we need clear black and white answers and no scenario-based ranges of answers; for this, ALCA seems better suited.…”