Scenario planning as an approach to structure the development of transport planning alternatives

The development of transport infrastructure is crucial for economic growth, social connectivity, and sustainable development. Many countries have historically underinvested in transport infrastructure, necessitating more efficient strategic planning in the implementation of transport infrastructure investment projects. This article addresses the selection and scheduling of transport infrastructure projects, specifically within the context of utilizing pre-allocated funds within a multi-annual budget investment program. The current decision-making process relies heavily on expert judgment and lacks quantitative decision support methods. We propose a genetic algorithm as a decision-support tool, framing the problem as an NP-hard 0–1 multiple knapsack problem. The proposed genetic algorithm (GA) is unique for its matrix-encoded chromosomes, specially designed genetic operators, and a customized repair operator to address the large number of invalid chromosomes generated during the GA computation. In computational experiments, the proposed GA is compared to an exact solution and proves to be efficient in terms of quality of obtained solutions and computational time, with an average computational time of 108 s and the quality of obtained solutions typically ranging between 85% and 95% of the optimal solution. These results highlight the potential of the proposed GA to enhance strategic decision-making in transport infrastructure development.

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Backcasting Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Implementation: A Systematic Review

Espinoza-Molina,

Valladolid,

Bautista

et al. 2024

WEVJ

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The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to drastically change society, planning, design, and development strategies. This study uses the PRISMA protocol to carry out a systematic literature review, focusing on the backcasting method as an analytic tool. By examining. 21 studies published between 2003 and 2024, this paper highlights the phases of backcasting: visioning, policy packaging, and appraisal, and identifies critical factors necessary for the successful integration of AVs. Visioning for future driverless cities includes high-quality urban areas, active mobility, and innovative developments. Policies and Packaging suggested a focus on restricting vehicular access, transit-oriented development, and encouraging public transportation. Appraisal reveals skepticism about the positive impacts of AVs, urging policies that limit access to urban areas and promote sustainable modes of transportation. The main contribution of this study lies in its comprehensive application of backcasting to AV implementation, offering a structured approach to envisioning future urban scenarios, formulating supportive policies, and evaluating their impact. This analysis provides a solid foundation for future research, urging us to explore the intersection between AVs, citizen participation, and environmental sustainability to achieve more efficient and sustainable cities.

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Scenario planning as an approach to structure the development of transport planning alternatives

Cited by 3 publications

References 60 publications

Identification of Strategic Planning Factors to Achieve Smart Mobility for New Cities in Developing Countries Using CIB Method

Identification of Strategic Planning Factors to Achieve Smart Mobility for New Cities in Developing Countries Using CIB Method

Solving Transport Infrastructure Investment Project Selection and Scheduling Using Genetic Algorithms

Backcasting Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Implementation: A Systematic Review

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