Scenario Planning: Embracing the Potential for Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Gerlak, Andrea K.; Jacobs, Katharine L.; McCoy, Amy; Martin, Season; Rivera-Torres, Mariana; Murveit, Anna M.; Leinberger, Amanda J.; Thomure, Timothy

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03013-3

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The Colorado River Conversations Project scenario planning workshops built a series of scenarios based on "nightmare" future conditions that represented the compounding effects of climate-change-driven extreme events with unrelated social and economic challenges (Jacobs et al 2020;Gerlak et al 2021). In these conversations, participants identified a range of regionally relevant climate-related and extreme weather events and trends of concern, which included: (1) intensifying heat waves, (2) diminished snowpack, (3) long-duration drying (sustained declines in runoff efficiency), (4) extensive wildfires, (5) short-duration intense wet and dry system shocks, (6) amplified wet and dry swings (climate whiplash), and (7) declines in monsoons.…”

Section: Planning Amid Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2020; Gerlak et al. 2021). In these conversations, participants identified a range of regionally relevant climate‐related and extreme weather events and trends of concern, which included: (1) intensifying heat waves, (2) diminished snowpack, (3) long‐duration drying (sustained declines in runoff efficiency), (4) extensive wildfires, (5) short‐duration intense wet and dry system shocks, (6) amplified wet and dry swings (climate whiplash), and (7) declines in monsoons.…”

Section: Planning Amid Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…arizona.edu/colorado-river-conversations-project). Workshop participants included representatives from all seven Colorado River Basin states, Mexico, Tribes, academics, scientists, water managers, agricultural interests, and nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) (Jacobs et al 2020;Gerlak et al 2021). The Project included three scenario planning workshops that examined the types and impacts of potential intersecting and/ or overlapping extreme events in the Basin and developed a series of near-term actions that could help increase resilience in the built and natural environment (Jacobs et al 2020).…”

Section: Planning Amid Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

McCoy

Jacobs

Vano

et al. 2022

J American Water Resour Assoc

Self Cite

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Extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with damaging floods, prolonged drought, destructive wildfires, agricultural challenges, compromised human health, vulnerable infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems and species. Often, the steady and progressive trends (or presses) of rising global temperature are the central focus in how climate impacts are described. However, observations of extreme weather events (or pulses) increasingly show that the intensity, duration and/or frequency of acute events are also changing, resulting in greater impacts on communities and the environment. Describing how the influence of extreme events may shape water management in the Colorado River Basin in clear terms is critical to sound future planning and efforts to manage risk. Three scenario planning workshops in 2019 and 2020 were held as part of a Colorado River Conversations series, identifying potential impacts from multiple intersecting extreme events. Water managers identified climate‐related events of concern in the Colorado River Basin that necessitate greater attention and adaptive responses. To support efforts to include consideration of climate‐change‐driven extremes in water management and planning, we explore the current state of knowledge at the confluence of long‐term climate shifts and extreme weather in the Colorado River Basin related to the events of concern that were identified by scenario planning participants.

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Section: Planning Amid Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Planning Amid Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Planning Amid Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

McCoy

Jacobs

Vano

et al. 2022

J American Water Resour Assoc

Self Cite

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“…The confounding factors of structural overallocation, increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, and population growth against the backdrop of a multidecadal drought created a constellation of risk factors for catastrophic shortages on the river (Gerlak et al. 2021). Under the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP), the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) will reduce deliveries to Arizona, California, Nevada, and Mexico based upon the elevation of Lake Mead; delivery reductions for each state increase as the lake elevation drops (U.S. Department of the Interior 2007; Cooke 2016).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Three Colorado Rivers: Hydrologic, Infrastructural, and Economic Flows of Water in a Shared River Basin

Rushforth

Zégre

Ruddell

2022

J American Water Resour Assoc

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The Colorado River Basin is a hydrologic river network that directs runoff from rain and snow falling on mountains, primarily in Colorado and Wyoming, to the Colorado River Delta in Mexico. Over the last century, in response to basin‐wide water shortages, legal agreements between stakeholders in seven U.S. states and Mexico, hydrologic flows from users on the main stem of the river have been reallocated to junior water rights holders. Municipalities, businesses, farmers, and households utilize the Colorado River water to produce and trade valuable, water‐derived goods and services, which effectively reallocates water through a continually adapting, boundary‐free economic river network providing indirect access to "virtual" Colorado River water. We conceptualize the Colorado River Basin as a multiplex network comprised of interdependent natural flow networks, direct (infrastructural) flow networks, and indirect (virtual) flow networks. Using this reframing, we quantify the total hydrosocial impact of the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) on Lower Basin states. For each Mm3 of water reduced through the DCP, Arizona, Nevada, and California lose an additional 0.42–0.43 Mm3, 0.33–0.51 Mm3, and 1.06–1.10 Mm3 of virtual water flow, respectively. Hence, the DCP will require Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California to restructure how they use water, relying less on direct and indirect consumption of the Colorado River water and finding more indirect water sources outside that basin.

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“…Likewise, there are situations in which the competing demands upon water, energy and food resources are concurrent, such as in the Colorado River Basin (Huckleberry and Potts, 2019). Balance must be sought in such situations, and modeling can provide insight into how to achieve this, recognizing the water-energy-food nexus (Hurford and Harou, 2014), and transdisciplinary research on how to achieve this between social groups, especially under circumstances of climate stress (Gerlak et al, 2021). However, neither can ensure consensus is reached on a course of action that is suitable for all (Granit et al, 2012).…”

Section: Knowable and Unavoidablementioning

confidence: 99%

Unintended Consequences: Unknowable and Unavoidable, or Knowable and Unforgivable?

et al. 2021

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Recognizing that there are multiple environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, it is essential that potential negative outcomes of seemingly positive actions are accounted for. This alertness to unintended consequences underscores the importance of so called “nexus” research, which recognizes the integrated and interactive nature of water, energy and food systems, and aims to understand the broader implications of developments in any one of these systems. This article presents a novel framework for categorizing such detrimental unintended consequences, based upon how much is known about the system in question and the scope for avoiding any such unintended consequences. The framework comprises four categories (Knowable and Avoidable; Knowable and Unavoidable; Unknowable and Avoidable, and Unknowable and Unavoidable). The categories are explored with reference to examples in both the water-energy-food nexus and planetary boundary frameworks. The examples highlight the potential for the unexpected to happen and explore dynamic nature of the situations that give rise to the unexpected. The article concludes with guidance on how the framework can be used to increase confidence that best efforts have been made to navigate our way toward secure and sustainable water, energy and food systems, avoiding and/or managing unintended consequences along the way.

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Scenario Planning: Embracing the Potential for Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Cited by 14 publications

References 33 publications

The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

The Three Colorado Rivers: Hydrologic, Infrastructural, and Economic Flows of Water in a Shared River Basin

Unintended Consequences: Unknowable and Unavoidable, or Knowable and Unforgivable?

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