Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador

Pizzitutti, Francesco; Walsh, Stephen J.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Reck, Gunter; Quiroga, Diego; Tippett, Rebecca; Mena, Carlos F.

doi:10.1080/09669582.2016.1257011

Cited by 81 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Urbanization has had numerous evolutionary and ecological consequences on the Galápagos (De Leon et al, 2018; Hendry et al, 2006; Sequeira et al, 2016; Tanner Perry, 2007), indicating that human-induced habitat disruption is one of the foremost threats to biodiversity on the islands (Pizzitutti et al, 2017; Quiroga, 2018). Our findings similarly suggest that urbanization has played an important role in the loss of endemic CHS and GAL populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Economic, touristic, and agricultural development on the islands have been explosive over the past 60 years (Quiroga, 2018). The accompanying economic transition from primarily agrarian to tourism-focused (Pizzitutti et al, 2017) and the subsequent expansion of coastal towns has affected natural habitats as well as provided new habitats for invaders (e.g. in abandoned highland crop fields, industrial sites, solid waste plants, and along roadsides (Darwin, 2009; Quiroga, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Local extirpation is pervasive among populations of Galápagos endemic tomatoes

Gibson

Torres

Moyle

2019

Preprint

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The Galápagos Islands are home to incredible endemic biodiversity that 12 is of high conservation interest. Two such endemic species are the Galápagos toma-13 toes: Solanum cheesmaniae and Solanum galapagense. Both are known from histor-14 ical location records, but like many endemic plant species on the Galápagos, their 15 current conservation status is unclear. We revisited previously documented sites 16 of endemic species on San Cristóbal, Santa Cruz, and Isabela, and document the 17 disappearance of >80% of these populations. In contrast, we find that two inva-18 sive relatives (Solanum pimpinellifolium and Solanum lycopersicum ) are now highly 19 abundant, and in some cases-based on morphological observations-might be hy-20 bridizing with endemics. Our findings suggest that expanding human developments 21 and putative interspecific hybridization are among the major factors affecting the 22 prevalence of invasives and the threatened persistence of the endemic populations.23

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local extirpation is pervasive among populations of Galápagos endemic tomatoes

Gibson

Torres

Moyle

2019

Preprint

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“…Schweiger et al [45] showed how resistance affects organizational change, by providing a participatory system dynamics perspective. In addition, other models have been developed e.g., for water quantity and quality management [33,[46][47][48], wildlife health [49], tourism management [50], as well as a social-ecological model of syndemic risk [51]. As the application of PSDM in these studies shows, model building and facilitated group problem solving emerge as two important processes in participatory modeling, which are both of great benefit to stakeholder participation and consensus building.…”

Section: Methodology Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Engaging Stakeholders in Urban Traffic Restriction Policy Assessment Using System Dynamics: The Case Study of Xi’an City, China

Shi

Guo

2019

Sustainability

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With the purpose of limiting the drastically increasing quantity of travel volumes and the sustainability of urban traffic systems, many cities have implemented urban traffic restriction (UTR) policies. However, insufficient stakeholder involvement in UTR policy assessment often leads to a lack of social and political support, in addition to a lack of acceptability with respect to policy implementation. In this background, participatory system dynamics modeling (PSDM) is presented as a methodology to engage stakeholders in UTR policy assessment. By the proposed methodology, a comprehensive case study of UTR policy in the city of Xi’an was illustrated. Based on the assessment results, the leverage point influencing the performance of the UTR policy was identified and discussed, with different policy scenarios simulated and tested. The simulation results show that developing public transportation while implementing UTR policy was indicated as the most reasonable solution at the present stage, and the annual growth rate of private cars should be monitored in the future. The results confirmed that the PSDM methodology can facilitate the system thinking of stakeholders, which is important to reach consensus-based assessment results and to enhance the social support for UTR policy.

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“…In 2018, the Galapagos registered 32,000 inhabitants [29] and 276,000 tourists [30]. The average annual population growth rate is 7% [29] and it is expected that there will be a tourism growth rate of 8% to 2030 [31]. Tourism is the most important economic activity in these islands [32], which is generating a conflict between resource conservation and economic development [33].…”

Section: Galapagos Islands Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonizing the Galapagos Islands: Techno-Economic Perspectives for the Hybrid Renewable Mini-Grid Baltra–Santa Cruz

et al. 2020

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The fragile ecosystem of the Galapagos Islands is being affected by population growth, intensive tourism, the exploitation of local resources and the high consumption of imported fossil fuels. This unsustainable development model makes the provision of services such as electricity a challenge. This research investigates the hybrid renewable mini-grid Baltra-Santa Cruz, which represents 62% of the electricity generation mix of the archipelago. This study aims to support the Galapagos Zero Fossil Fuel Initiative and the Sustainable Development Goal 7 through the reduction in diesel consumption and electricity generation costs. To do so, HOMER Pro, a specialized hybrid renewable mini-grid planning tool, is used to perform several techno-economic assessments, focusing on different electricity demand scenarios. Therefore, multiple pathways are compared to identify the most reliable alternatives towards the progressive decarbonization of this hybrid system. The results indicate that installing 18.25 MWp of photovoltaic and 20.68 MWh of battery capacity could reduce the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from 32.06 to 18.95 USc/kWh, increasing the renewable energy (RE) share from 18% to 39%. Additionally, the successful application of energy efficiency measures would even reduce the LCOE to 17.10 USc/kWh. What is more, distributed energy is considered the most attractive way to involve islanders in the energy transition process. Finally, this paper offers a comprehensive business model proposal to achieve a resilient energy supply, based on a combination of auctions and energy community models, which demands high political will, reliable and innovative regulations and social awareness about energy use.Sustainability 2020, 12, 2282 4 of 47 and implement RE projects. In addition, the Ecuadorian Electricity Master Plan (PME) 2016-2025 [44] contains the list of priority projects to increase renewable electricity generation. Moreover, those possible new partners can propose additional RE initiatives thanks to the General Regulation of the LOSPEE. This regulation [43] is based on the targets of the National Plan of Development 2017Development -2021 which prioritize RE resources exploitation to reduce the dependency of fossil fuels. What is more, new companies interested in developing RE projects can receive an income-tax-exemption for five years [46].As regards distributed generation, the photovoltaic microgeneration to electricity self-sufficiency for final consumers of electricity regulation [47] and its amendment [48] promote the installation of PV systems up to 300 kWp per user in the residential sector and below 1000 kWp per user in the commercial and industrial sectors. This regulation is not limited to rooftop PV systems. A net-metering scheme is applied to compensate electricity costs. Thanks to this mechanism, consumers are billed for their "net" electricity use and the associated costs become credits for the following months if the electricity balance is positive for users. [47]. The National Rate Schedule for ...

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Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador

Cited by 81 publications

References 28 publications

Local extirpation is pervasive among populations of Galápagos endemic tomatoes

Local extirpation is pervasive among populations of Galápagos endemic tomatoes

Engaging Stakeholders in Urban Traffic Restriction Policy Assessment Using System Dynamics: The Case Study of Xi’an City, China

Decarbonizing the Galapagos Islands: Techno-Economic Perspectives for the Hybrid Renewable Mini-Grid Baltra–Santa Cruz

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