Scenario Planning in Practice

Lindgren, Mats; Bandhold, Hans

doi:10.1057/9780230511620_4

Cited by 18 publications

(25 citation statements)

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“…Arguably, one that precedes the more logical and pragmatic hard-science epistemologies applied to human understanding and natural-environment sense-making. Rasmussen (2005, p. 230) notes, “the narrative approach allows the scenario designer to provide holistic views of the future.” Narrative writing is an effective way of presenting future scenarios, as they provide stories that are engaging and informative (Lindgren and Bandhold, 2009). This is significant because this research initially draws on storytelling and scenario writing (by other researchers), before exploring the potential future of travel and tourism.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Travel and the climate crisis: exploring COVID-19 impacts and the power of stories to encourage change

Wright

2021

JTF

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Purpose The natural environment is facing unprecedented times owing to rising temperatures from carbon emissions, which travel-related industries contribute significantly towards. The recent global COVID-19 outbreak should be a wake-up call for the industry, as vulnerabilities have been laid bare. The current challenges should be used as a motivation to change the meaning of travel to support the global warming crisis. This paper aims emphasis that, by means of new stories, new values, beliefs and ultimately travel behaviours can be rewritten. Design/methodology/approach/ This study embraces a pragmatic approach to research. To ensure plausibility, credibility and relevance, the research carried out multi-disciplinary analysis of secondary data, information, knowledge and draws on current developing trends. Findings The travel community needs to take responsibility and start reducing its carbon footprint and as carbon neutrality is increasingly a global priority. Accordingly, this research considers potential future travel-related behaviours that could support more carbon-neutral travel. Significantly, it notes how the COVID-19 outbreak has offered insights into potential positive changes. To benefit from these changes, new stories for industry providers are necessary to encourage more carbon-neutral travel practices. Originality/value This paper offers timely and original discussions on the future of travel as a result of COVID-19 impacts. It draws on the power of storytelling as a means of achieving behavioural change in the travel community to support the challenge of climate change.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Travel and the climate crisis: exploring COVID-19 impacts and the power of stories to encourage change

Wright

2021

JTF

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“…These scenarios are created by teams and run on quantitative causal models, which forecast potential effects based on the evidence base. Creating a model is thus the cornerstone of scenario generation, yet it has long been a labor-intensive task [8,9]. Several works have brought automation to this process [18,19], in particular by deriving models from an evidence base consisting of a text corpus [25][26][27][28].…”

Section: Findings and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenarios have several demonstrated benefits for the decision-making activities of teams, such as raising awareness for the dynamics of an environment, managing uncertainty, evaluating different products, or breaking away from groupthink [4][5][6][7]. The field of scenario planning has articulated many approaches to craft such scenarios [8], often with the objective of producing a small number (typically 3-8) of plausible and alternative scenarios that cover different futures [9]. The quality of these scenarios is assessed through various criteria, such as plausibility [10], creativity [11], transparency [12], sufficient differentiation [13], relevance [14], or consistency [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Automatically Generating Scenarios from a Text Corpus: A Case Study on Electric Vehicles

2022

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Creating ‘what-if’ scenarios to estimate possible futures is a key component of decision-making processes. However, this activity is labor intensive as it is primarily done manually by subject-matter experts who start by identifying relevant themes and their interconnections to build models, and then craft diverse and meaningful stories as scenarios to run on these models. Previous works have shown that text mining could automate the model-building aspect, for example, by using topic modeling to extract themes from a large corpus and employing variations of association rule mining to connect them in quantitative ways. In this paper, we propose to further automate the process of scenario generation by guiding pre-trained deep neural networks (i.e., BERT) through simulated conversations to extract a model from a corpus. Our case study on electric vehicles shows that our approach yields similar results to previous work while almost eliminating the need for manual involvement in model building, thus focusing human expertise on the final stage of crafting compelling scenarios. Specifically, by using the same corpus as a previous study on electric vehicles, we show that the model created here either performs similarly to the previous study when there is a consensus in the literature, or differs by highlighting important gaps on domains such as government deregulation.

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“…Prognozowanie emocjonalne cechuje podejście intuicyjne i wizjonerskie -metody prognostyczne bazują tutaj na skanowaniu mediów (media scanning), śledzeniu kulturalnych i artystycznych inspiracji (culture and art scanning), obserwowaniu fascynacji osobowościami z różnych branż (GURU forecasting), uwzględnianiu opowieści (lifestyle storytelling), analizą obowiązujących stylów (style trend analysis) czy przyglądaniu się nowościom pojawiającym się na targach branżowych (trade fairs). Skanowanie mediów to metoda polegająca na systematycznej, ale szybkiej lekturze magazynów opiniotwórczych i prasy codziennej w celu identyfikacji powtarzających się tematów i motywów [Lindgren, Banhold 2003]. Synteza tego typu obserwacji jest pomocna w przewidywaniu trendów.…”

Section: Prognozowanie Emocjonalneunclassified

Metody przewidywania trendów w makrootoczeniu / Methods of predicting trends in macro-environment

Hajdas

Szabela-Pasierbińska

2016

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

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JEL Classification: M31Streszczenie: W artykule poruszono problematykę metod prognozowania zjawisk w makrootoczeniu na potrzeby podejmowania decyzji biznesowych. Celem przeprowadzonych badań była eksploracja stanu wiedzy na temat metod przewidywania trendów oraz identyfikacja metod stosowanych do tego celu przez polskich badaczy. Artykuł oparty został na studiach literaturowych oraz analizie treści publikacji naukowych poświęconych makrootoczeniu. Wyniki wskazują na korzystanie przez badaczy z niewielkiego zakresu metod służących przewidywaniu zmian w otoczeniu.

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Scenario Planning in Practice

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Travel and the climate crisis: exploring COVID-19 impacts and the power of stories to encourage change

Travel and the climate crisis: exploring COVID-19 impacts and the power of stories to encourage change

Automatically Generating Scenarios from a Text Corpus: A Case Study on Electric Vehicles

Metody przewidywania trendów w makrootoczeniu / Methods of predicting trends in macro-environment

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