Scenario planning––lessons for practice from teaching and learning

O’Brien, Frances A.

doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(03)00068-7

Cited by 120 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Scenario development and planning was popularised by Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s and differs from other planning methods, in that rather than trying to determine a definite outcome for the future, it aims to develop a range of possible futures (Schwarz, 1991). Importantly, scenarios examine the "external environment; that is the environment within which an organisation operates" (O'Brien, 2004). In doing so, they consider the relationships between uncertainties, trends and the behaviour of actors involved in the scenario (Wright and Cairns, 2011).…”

Section: Scenario Planning For Supply Chain Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

3D printing the future: scenarios for supply chains reviewed

Ryan

Eyers

Potter

et al. 2017

IJPDLM

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If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation.*Related content and download information correct at time of download. Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the existing scenarios for 3D printing (3DP) in order to identify the "white space" where future opportunities have not been proposed or developed to date. Based around aspects of order penetration points, geographical scope and type of manufacturing, these gaps are identified. Design/methodology/approach -A structured literature review has been carried out on both academic and trade publications. As of the end of May 2016, this identified 128 relevant articles containing 201 future scenarios. Coding these against aspects of existing manufacturing and supply chain theory has led to the development of a framework to identify "white space" in the existing thinking. Findings -The coding shows that existing future scenarios are particularly concentrated on job shop applications and pull-based supply chain processes, although there are fewer constraints on geographical scope. Five distinct areas of "white space" are proposed, reflecting various opportunities for future 3DP supply chain development. Research limitations/implications -Being a structured literature review, there are potentially articles not identified through the search criteria used. The nature of the findings is also dependent upon the coding criteria selected. However, these are theoretically derived and reflect important aspect of strategic supply chain management. Practical implications -Practitioners may wish to explore the development of business models within the "white space" areas. Originality/value -Currently, existing future 3DP scenarios are scattered over a wide, multi-disciplinary literature base. By providing a consolidated view of these scenarios, it is possible to identify gaps in current thinking. These gaps are multi-disciplinary in nature and represent opportunities for both academics and practitioners to exploit.

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Section: Scenario Planning For Supply Chain Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

3D printing the future: scenarios for supply chains reviewed

Ryan

Eyers

Potter

et al. 2017

IJPDLM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…O'Brien [26] discusses a time horizon of just five and ten years, whereas other, more recent scenarios, have horizons of 16 years [9] or even 50 or more years [1,11]. Collins and Porras [27] stated that ''companies need an audacious 10-to-30 year goal to progress toward an envisioned future''.…”

Section: Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…O'Brien [26] identified a number of common pitfalls when applying this approach including: the predictability of a limited set of factors and the theme selection; a focus on current/next big issues; making implicit assumptions; and an unimaginative presentation of scenarios. His revised method introduced modifications such as generating up to 40 uncertain (as well as predetermined) factors which are then clustered, reduced and ranked in terms of uncertainty and importance to the organisation.…”

Section: Scenario Building Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organisations

Goodier

Austin

Soetanto

et al. 2010

Futures

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“…Whereas responsibility for realising strategy is generally shared and should explicitly be distributed amongst business-related, engineering, operational and infrastructural groupings; albeit that strategic thinking is normally centred on business personnel, strategy programming typically concerns business, engineering and infrastructural personnel and strategy deployment commonly involves all organisational groups (Seaker and Wallace 1996, Magretta 2002, O'Brien 2003and Hamel 1996. their consultant advisors will only deploy a small subset of the techniques categorised.…”

Section: Strategy Realisation In Mesmentioning

confidence: 99%