Scenario planning of electricity supply system: case of Iran

Abstract

Purpose Energy has a strategic role in the social and economic development of countries. Affordability, accessibility and availability of energy sources are the priorities of the governments in energy supply. Therefore, understanding the robustness of energy supply is an important subject of energy researchers and policymakers. This paper aims to analyze the robustness of the electricity system at the national level. Design/methodology/approach First, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis is implemented for a selected case study. Then, the expert panel weighed the parameters’ effect on sustainable power generation, the survey is quantified using fuzzy logic. Finally, cross functional analysis is applied to evaluate the influence/dependence of the parameters. Findings The results show three determinant parameters which have the most influence on the system: fluctuations in oil prices, governmental acts and sanctions against the country. The most dependent parameters, as objectives variables, are the share of renewables and distributed generation (DG), system reliability, power generation diversity and transmission efficiency. Originality/value Using future studies methods in the energy level at the nation level has been done for the first time in the current work.

Perspectives for Implementing Distributed Generation in Developing Countries through Modeling Techniques

“…30,40,41,80,81,83−86,93,98−101 The second ones represent economic perspectives for introducing or coupling energy technologies to the actual infrastructure and economic environment. 82,[87][88][89][90][91][92]94,96,97 When the economic and politic contexts are considered, modeling approaches have addressed the condition on prices of local energy markets considering the uncertainty on prices linked to inflation 84 and volatility 81,83,86 or forecasting future price behavior 41 for designing and implementing decentralized energy technologies. A second remarkable approach is the effect of price regulations, which has been presented for designing DG systems, 80,82,89 operation of energy supply, 87,96 of new producers interconnected to the grid.…”

“…On the other hand, there are approaches directed to attracting private investment considering possible revenues, 30 competitive costs, 85 open market scenarios, 90,94 and local incentives and policies. 88,91,97,101 The last point leads to the analysis of the incentives and taxes used for stimulating the technological migration on the energy sector. The current lack of concrete carbon policies has led us to use as reference the ones implemented on developed countries presenting the trends and perspectives of implementation of DG.…”

“…The current lack of concrete carbon policies has led us to use as reference the ones implemented on developed countries presenting the trends and perspectives of implementation of DG. 44,100 The incentives for implementing energy projects have been addressed considering the public 88,97,101 and mixed founding. 98 The closeness and integration of European developing countries to the EU have stimulated the approaches for migration on the economic energy conditions.…”

“…Two approaches have been presented to address this point: the ones focused on specific technologies and the ones that involve general conditions of the total of the energy mix and facilities. The first ones represent technical perspectives of the economic conditions, i.e., the analysis of coupling or introducing energy technologies in a specific economic environment. ,,,,,− ,,− The second ones represent economic perspectives for introducing or coupling energy technologies to the actual infrastructure and economic environment. ,− ,,, …”

“…A second remarkable approach is the effect of price regulations, which has been presented for designing DG systems, ,, operation of energy supply, , and integration of new producers interconnected to the grid. − All of them present general strategies for the implementation of DG in the current context, which could be adapted to other countries considering the local background. On the other hand, there are approaches directed to attracting private investment considering possible revenues, competitive costs, open market scenarios, , and local incentives and policies. ,,, …”