Scenario Tree and Adaptive Decision Making on Optimal Type and Timing for Intervention and Social-economic Activity Changes to Manage the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

We introduce a novel approach to inform the re-opening plan followed by a postpandemic lockdown by integrating a stochastic optimization technique with a disease transmission model. We assess Ontarios re-opening plans as a case-study. Taking into account the uncertainties in contact rates during different re-opening phases, we find the optimal timing for the upcoming re-opening phase that maximizes the relaxation of social contacts under uncertainties, while not overwhelming the health system capacity before the arrival of effective therapeutics or vaccines.

Managing SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Schools with an Artificial Intelligence Model and Application Developed by Simulation Data

“…As a practice and a methodology, modeling lays the ground on necessary assumptions and parameters according to which agents are expected to behave and under which systems operate [37]. It also allows for desired goals to be taken into account in optimization efforts [38], a pursuit that benefits from problem framing and conceptualization efforts [39,40], and systematic discussions around simulation artifacts, a practice referred to in literature as focused on collaborative model building [41]. While centered in practical ways of understanding issues and designing policies, these initiatives are also epistemic, for they introduce ways of building knowledge from existing knowledge in combination with empirical or theoretical data [42].…”

Estimation and Optimal Control of the Multiscale Dynamics of Covid-19: A Case Study From Cameroon

“…There are several works tackling the issue of optimality of fighting strategies against Covid-19 [15,41,42,54,60,64]. The objective function to optimize is commonly expressed in the literature by the sum of a positive linear combination of disease states and a positive quadratic combination of control parameters.…”

“…The first group addressed the problem of forecasting the disease in order to help decision makers to better evaluate the logistic challenges they will face [1,4,5,20,19,28,30,33,34,45,47,48,50,55,57,58,61,72,73]. The second category of papers focused on evaluating the effectiveness of mitigations measures prescribed by the WHO and different governments in order to define better fighting strategies [6,12,15,17,18,29,34,41,45,50,54,55,56,60,63,64,65,71,73]. The last set of papers studied the social and the economical impacts of the pandemic [42,70].…”

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

“…The first group addressed the problem of forecasting the disease in order to help decision makers to better evaluate the logistic challenges they will face [1, 3, 4, 16, 15, 24, 25, 28, 29, 37, 38, 39, 41, 45, 47, 48, 51, 61, 62]. The second category of papers focused on evaluating the effectiveness of mitigations measures prescribed by the WHO and different governments in order to define better fighting strategies [5, 9, 12, 13, 14, 29, 34, 37, 41, 44, 45, 46, 50, 53, 55, 54, 60, 62]. The last set of papers studied the social and the economical impacts of the pandemic [35, 59].…”