Scenarios and sustainability: tools for alleviating the gap between municipal means and responsibilities in adaptation planning

Baard, Patrik; Johansson, Maria; Carlsen, Henrik; Björnberg, Karin Edvardsson

doi:10.1080/13549839.2011.646969

Cited by 21 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Baard et al [34] suggest CBA as an optional tool for municipal decision-making for climate adaptation strategies along or instead of the goal conflict analysis earlier mentioned.…”

Section: Cost Benefit Analysis (Cba)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This can be useful in order to assess whether a certain measure aimed at reaching a specific target may at the same time facilitate or hamper the achievement of other targets. Such approaches were used in several academic examples [34,36,42] but also in several municipalities' plans [27,28,30] and in a report from the Swedish Energy Agency [37].…”

Section: Analytical Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Baard et al [34] suggest the use of a checklist in municipalities for their climate adaptation plans as a first step. This was applied in the assessment process of identified climate adaptation measures and their implications in different explorative socio-economic scenarios combined with climate scenarios.…”

Section: Analytical Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…if no decision could be made as to which scenario or alternative is preferable, then a CBA could help ranking different options. The CBA of the different technical and administrative measures was done back-office and only for one of the explorative scenario (worst case scenario with the most significant climate impact 2060) [34]. The benefits considered were both environmental (ecological benefits) and social (recreational benefits, freshwater supply to households etc.…”

Section: Cost Benefit Analysis (Cba)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The list includes specific questions about distribution and ethics as a way to identify the potential winners and losers (individuals or groups) of a measure over time. As a second step, a mapping of the consequences on the three sustainability dimensions was carried out in a participatory workshop [34], where planners from different sectors listed the consequences of different measures in the scenarios, and estimated the magnitude of the consequences qualitatively according to the scale low/ medium/high decrease or increase.…”

Section: Analytical Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

et al. 2017

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Future scenarios are often used to address long-term challenges characterised by uncertainty and complexity, as they can help explore different alternative future pathways. Scenarios can therefore be a useful tool to support policy and guide action towards sustainability. But what sustainability aspects are put forward in scenarios and how are they assessed? This paper aims to explore how to assess future scenarios, categorised according to Börjeson et al. (Futures 38:723-739, 2006) i.e. predictive, explorative and normative scenarios. By conducting a literature review and a document analysis, we map tools and methods that are currently used to assess environmental and social sustainability aspects in scenarios. We also draw on experiences from methods for impact assessments of Swedish municipal comprehensive plans, which can be considered as future scenarios. We identify whether some sustainability aspects are less recurrent than others in the reviewed assessments or even left out. We find that there is no single tool that can be used to assess scenarios. Some quantitative tools based on databases may be more suitable for assessing scenarios within a shorter time horizon, whereas qualitative assessment methods might better fit the purpose of long-term transformative scenarios. We also find that assessment frameworks may be useful to guide the assessment, as to what its intended purpose is and which sustainability aspects to include. Finally we discuss whether further assessment tools are needed in order to include a wider array of potential environmental or social consequences of the content of scenarios.

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“…Baard et al [34] suggest CBA as an optional tool for municipal decision-making for climate adaptation strategies along or instead of the goal conflict analysis earlier mentioned.…”

Section: Cost Benefit Analysis (Cba)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analytical Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analytical Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cost Benefit Analysis (Cba)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analytical Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

et al. 2017

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Socio-economic Impacts—Urban Complexes

Deppisch

Juhola

Janßen

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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This chapter examines observed and potential future climate change impacts on socioeconomic fields concerning urban complexes in the Baltic Sea basin. This is based on the literature review that focused mainly on English publications on climate change impacts, but included some publications in other languages on adaptation. In the Baltic Sea basin, there appears to be an imbalance between cities and towns that have been well studied with reference to climate change impacts, and cities or even regions for which there is hardly any published literature. For those publications that do exist, most concern the impact of a specific climate change effect (temperature rise, extreme events, sea-level rise) on a particular socioeconomic field of an urban complex. The results of the literature review indicate that urban complexes in the Baltic Sea catchment are likely to experience climate change impacts within wide-ranging contexts: from urban services and technical infrastructure, to buildings and settlement structures and to the urban economy or population. Impacts will differ depending on the location of the urban complex: northern versus southern and coastal versus inland. IntroductionThis chapter examines observed and potential future climate change impacts on socio-economic fields concerning urban complexes. Urban complexes are human-dominated settlements with relatively higher population density than rural settlements. The term comprises cities and towns. Urban complexes are further characterised by high concentrations of buildings and built-up areas with consequent soil sealing, high concentrations of people and infrastructure as well as specific economic and cultural roles and activities. These factors render urban complexes particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts (Hunt and Watkiss 2011). As every urban complex is characterised by a specific mix of social, ecological and economic interdependencies and its own settlement and building structure, it is difficult to generalise on scientific findings concerning urban complexes. Moreover, in the Baltic Sea basin, there seems to be an imbalance between cities and towns that have been well studied with reference to climate change impacts, and cities or even regions for which there is hardly any published literature. For those publications that do exist, most concern the impact of a specific climate change effect (temperature rise, extreme events, sea-level rise) on a particular socioeconomic field of an urban complex. Systematic case studies are available but are mostly on the impacts of climate on human health (Analitis et al.

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Adaptive Ideals and Aspirational Goals: The Utopian Ideals and Realist Constraints of Climate Change Adaptation

Baard

2015

J Agric Environ Ethics

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There is a growing need to implement anticipatory climate change adaptation measures, particularly in vulnerable sectors, such as in agriculture. However, setting goals to adapt is wrought with several challenges. This paper discusses two sets of challenges to goals of anticipatory adaptation, of (1) empirical and (2) normative character. The first set of challenges concern issues such as the extent to which the climate will change, the local impacts of such changes, and available adaptive responses. In the second set of uncertainties are issues such as the distribution of burdens to enhance adaptive capacities in vulnerable agents with a legitimate claim to such resources, and what anticipatory adaptation ideally should result in. While previous discussions have been limited to either discuss the first or second set of uncertainties, this paper suggests that both dimensions should be considered when setting goals in social planning with long time frames. A taxonomy will be suggested that combines both dimensions. Furthermore, strategies for managing situations in which there are either empirical, or normative, uncertainties will be proposed which could be used in social decision-making with long planning time-frames in which goals must be set.

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Scenarios and sustainability: tools for alleviating the gap between municipal means and responsibilities in adaptation planning

Cited by 21 publications

References 16 publications

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

Socio-economic Impacts—Urban Complexes

Adaptive Ideals and Aspirational Goals: The Utopian Ideals and Realist Constraints of Climate Change Adaptation

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