Scenarios for the Development of the Russian Oil Industry in Modern Conditions

Abstract

In the scientific work, a study is carried out of possible scenarios for the development of the Russian oil industry in modern non-stationary economic and political conditions. The hydrocarbon market is undergoing significant changes, largely accompanied by sharp price fluctuations and an excess of supply over demand, so it is important to assess under what conditions the Russian oil industry will be able to maximize its benefits. The aim of the study is to build objective scenarios for the development of the Russian oil industry and its position in the global hydrocarbon market. It also assesses the potential contribution of the Russian Federation to the reduction of oil production in the framework of the renewed OPEC+ transaction involving new oil exporting countries, as well as the combined effect of the agreements affecting oil prices. For making objective forecasts, internal factors are taken into account, among which are: access to hard-to-recover reserves, discovery and development of new deposits, investments in intensification of production, as well as external factors: agreements to reduce production by exporting countries, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) on the volume of sales of petroleum products, political and other economic conditions that have a direct impact on the global hydrocarbon market. The actual basis of the work is the forecasts of independent experts, analytical agencies, state statistical services, as well as reporting by oil companies in Russia and foreign countries.