Scenarios in forecasting

Zentner, Rene D.

doi:10.1021/cen-v053n040.p022

Cited by 21 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…53.54% (36) significantly high levels of agreement displayed in Fig. 2 may be viewed to represent true indicators of their agreement with the consensus forecasts reached.…”

Section: Consensus Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Advocates of scenarios claim that scenario analysis is valuable in providing alternative viable portrayals of the uncertainties, which may force decision makers to formulate strategies in response to any of these potential outcomes, thus decreasing confidence in a single prediction [35]. An associated drawback is that users, who are accustomed to dealing with a single projection of the future, might prefer to focus on a favored scenario and ignore the others [29,36]. For instance, when three scenarios are given, users may end up focusing on the midway scenario [37].…”

Section: Literature Review and Research Gapmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios as channels of forecast advice

Önkal

Sayım

Gönül

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Today's business environment provides tougher competition than ever before, stressing the important role played by information and forecasts in decision-making. The scenario method has been popular for focused organizational learning, decision making and strategic thinking in business contexts, and yet, its use in communicating forecast information and advice has received little research attention. This is surprising since scenarios may provide valuable tools for communication between forecast providers and users in organizations, offering efficient platforms for information exchange via structured storylines of plausible futures. In this paper, we aim to explore the effectiveness of using scenarios as channels of forecast advice. An experimental study is designed to investigate the effects of providing scenarios as forecast advice on individual and group-based judgmental predictions. Participants are given time series information and model forecasts, along with (i) best-case, (ii) worst-case, (iii) both, or (iv) no scenarios. Different forecasting formats are used (i.e., point forecast, best-case forecast, worst-case forecast, and surprise probability), and both individual predictions and consensus forecasts are requested. Forecasts made with and without scenarios are compared for each of these formats to explore the potential effects of providing scenarios as forecast advice. In addition, group effects are investigated via comparisons of composite versus consensus predictions. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and implications for future research on scenario use in forecasting.

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“…53.54% (36) significantly high levels of agreement displayed in Fig. 2 may be viewed to represent true indicators of their agreement with the consensus forecasts reached.…”

Section: Consensus Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Literature Review and Research Gapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios as channels of forecast advice

Önkal

Sayım

Gönül

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…Method. While the scenario method can vary significantly across fields and contexts (Bishop et al , 2007; Zentner, 1975), eight steps are typically recognised as the building blocks of scenario development (Schwarz, 1991; van der Heijden, 2011; Wright et al , 2013). According to Wright et al (2013), scenario development involves the following: setting a clear research agenda and delineating the timespan and area of study; working both individually and in groups to determine and cluster the most likely causal forces that have the potential to drive the future event under investigation; defining plausible outcomes for these clusters; assessing which scenario factors have the highest level of uncertainty and potential impact; framing the scenario within a larger context; drafting the scenario in descriptive terms; and develop the scenario into a storyline. …”

Section: Review Of Futures and Foresight Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

LARPnography: an embodied embedded cognition method to probe the future

Orazi

Cruz

2019

EJM

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Purpose This paper aims to propose LARPnography as a more holistic method to probe the emergence of plausible futures, drawing on embodied embedded cognition literature and the emerging consumer practice of live-action role-playing (LARP). Current research methods for probing the future of markets and society rely mainly on expert judgment (i.e. Delphi), imagery or simulation of possible futures (i.e. scenario and simulation) and perspective taking (i.e. role-playing). The predominant focus on cognitive abstraction limits the insights researchers can extract from more embodied, sensorial and experiential approaches. Design/methodology/approach LARPnography is a qualitative method seeking to immerse participants within a plausible future to better understand the social and market dynamics that may unfold therein. Through careful planning, design, casting and fieldwork, researchers create the preconditions to let participants experience what the future may be and gather critical insights from naturalistic observations and post-event interviews. Practical implications Owing to its interactive nature and processual focus, LARPnography is best suited to investigate the adoption and diffusion of innovation, market emergence phenomena and radical societal changes, including the rise of alternative societies. Originality/value Different from previous foresight methods, LARPnography creates immersive and perceptually stimulating replicas of plausible futures that research participants can inhabit. The creation of a fictional yet socio-material world ensures that socially constructed meaning is enriched by phenomenological and visceral insights.

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“…Long-term horizons take a long-range view that can reach generationally and span more than 10 years into the future. The farther into the future a scenario projects, the more general the scenario content tends to become, as a factor of uncertainty (Schnaars, 1987;Zentner, 1975). A mixture of congruent, target horizons (short-to long-term) can be found in the "Empowering Europe's Future" scenarios (Grevi et al, 2013).…”

Section: Horizonmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive scenario intervention typology

Crawford

2019

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Scenario planning, as a recognised organisational intervention, has steadily grown in popularity since the mid-20th century. To date, there are arguably as many methods and techniques as there are practitioners, with applications across nearly all sectors of public and private industry. Many feel that scenario planning is forever consigned to the realm of chaos, incapable of being clearly defined. We disagree and see the field as a collective of experiences and knowledge that play upon a theme, where emerging realities slowly reveal a structure to the system. In response, we propose a comprehensive typology for scenario planning interventionsthe Comprehensive Scenario Intervention typologywhich incorporates all dimensions of existing typologies along with additional dimensions and functions that reflect previously unrecognized and emergent topics relevant to understanding the critical realities of an intervention. The Comprehensive Scenario Intervention typology expands the scope of scenario planning interventions and adds to the theoretical foundation of the field.

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Scenarios in forecasting

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Scenarios as channels of forecast advice

Scenarios as channels of forecast advice

LARPnography: an embodied embedded cognition method to probe the future

A comprehensive scenario intervention typology

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