Scenarios of climate and land-use change,water demand and water availability for the São Francisco River basin

Koch, Hagen; Biewald, Anne; Liersch, Stefan; Azevedo, José Roberto Gonçalves de; Silva, Gerald N. Souza da; Kölling, Karolin; Fischer, P.; Koch, Robert; Hattermann, Fred F.

doi:10.5327/z2176-947820151007

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…For the case study, seven-year periods are simulated focusing on the near future (up to the year 2050). The influence of these scenarios on water resources can also be found in Koch et al [52]. Figure 4 shows the developed interface of the HEAL system and the discretization of the case study.…”

Section: Case Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Decision Support for the (Inter-)Basin Management of Water Resources Using Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling

Silva

Moraes

2021

Hydrology

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The development of adequate modeling at the basin level to establish public policies has an important role in managing water resources. Hydro-economic models can measure the economic effects of structural and non-structural measures, land and water management, ecosystem services and development needs. Motivated by the need of improving water allocation using economic criteria, in this study, a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with a hydro-economic optimization model (HEAL system) was developed and used for the identification and analysis of an optimal economic allocation of water resources in a case study: the sub-middle basin of the São Francisco River in Brazil. The developed SDSS (HEAL system) made the economically optimum allocation available to analyze water allocation conflicts and trade-offs. With the aim of providing a tool for integrated economic-hydrological modeling, not only for researchers but also for decision-makers and stakeholders, the HEAL system can support decision-making on the design of regulatory and economic management instruments in practice. The case study results showed, for example, that the marginal benefit function obtained for inter-basin water transfer, can contribute for supporting the design of water pricing and water transfer decisions, during periods of water scarcity, for the well-being in both basins.

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Section: Case Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Decision Support for the (Inter-)Basin Management of Water Resources Using Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling

Silva

Moraes

2021

Hydrology

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“…In humid and wet sub-humid areas, south and southwest of basin, temperatures reach an average of 20ºC (Torres et al, 2012), with potential evapotranspiration ranging from 1,241 to 4,344 mm/year, with an average of 2,300 mm/year (Beaudoing and Rodell, 2019), and rains precipitate an average of 1,500 to 2,000 mm/year (Koch et al, 2015;Sun et al, 2016). In dry sub-humid, semi-arid and arid areas, north and northeast of basin, temperatures reach an average of 26.5ºC (Torres et al, 2012), with potential evapotranspiration ranging from 1,533 to 5,110 mm/year, with an average of 2,884 mm/year (Beaudoing and Rodell, 2019), and rainfall precipitates an average of 350 mm/year (Koch et al, 2015;Sun et al, 2016).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Covering approximately 7.5% of the Brazilian territory, SFB has a population of over 17 million people (8% of Brazilian population), 21% of which are considered poor by the country's standards (Sun et al, 2016). Due to population growth and the demand for food, water, jobs and services, the municipalities in basin have had satisfactory socio-economic development in recent decades, but at the cost of natural resources, mainly native vegetation, soil and water, relative with deforestation problems, deserti cation, water scarcity, pollution and water bodies silting up (Creech et al, 2015;de Jong et al, 2018;Koch et al, 2015).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In another research, by Koch et al (2015), water availability and demand were assessed under two scenarios: i) a regionalized world with slow economic development, high population growth and little awareness of environmental problems; ii) a globalized world with low population growth, high growth in Gross National Product (GNP) and environmental sustainability, also adding climate change scenarios to both. As a result, they found that between 2021 and 2050 the basin will be wetter, with more intense rainy and dry periods, and increased water availability for irrigation and a drop in electricity generation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Land Cover Changes Implications in Energy Flow and Water Cycle in São Francisco Basin, Brazil, over the Past Seven Decades

Santos

Calijuri

Assis

2021

Preprint

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This research aimed to quantify and qualify alterations in land cover and verify the implications of these modifications for variables related to energy flows and water cycle in São Francisco basin (SFB), located entirely in Brazilian territory, in the second half of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st. For this, statistical analyzes (descriptive, trends, seasonal and correlations) were used to quantify changes in the variables of land cover and energy/water flows, in addition to relating them. As a result, it was found that the SFB lost 65,680 km² of native vegetation (10.4% of basin area) to crops and pastures, reducing water infiltration (-52%) while the rains remained stable (-2%). Water loss increased through evapotranspiration (+5%) and surface runoff (+225%). Such changes in the water cycle have entailed an 11% reduction in São Francisco river long term flow rate (Q95), comparing pre and post-1990s period. In SFB, the activities that required water, such as farming activities, are those that promote hydric loss.

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“…Several schemes are the result of forced resettlement after reservoir formation. Additional irrigation schemes are planned by the regional development company CODEVASF, although water availability simulations suggest that clear deficits may occur in the drier months (Koch et al 2015). Plantations of alternative trees, e.g., Eucalyptus spp., are suggested as a means to generate biomass for combustion, which may mitigate the substantial slashing of Caatinga for fuelwood, for instance for the gypsum industry (Gadelha et al 2012;Silva 2008).…”

Section: Commercial and Subsistence Usesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-method approach to explore environmental governance: a case study of a large, densely populated dry forest region of the neotropics

Siegmund‐Schultze

2020

Environ Dev Sustain

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Semiarid regions are often secondary on the national to global (scientific) agenda, especially if abundant vegetation elsewhere draws attention and the local population is considered backwards thinking and poverty-stricken. The Caatinga, our case study, is such a region, home to millions of Brazilians and a vast biodiversity. Unfortunately, a widely uncoordinated land use change and biodiversity decline are happening, while farmers' livelihoods are at risk. We hypothesize substantial weaknesses in the current governance practices. To explore governance of the less noticed region, we conducted interviews and field visits and complemented the findings with the literature and internet resources. Our multi-method approach combines the social-ecological systems framework with constellation analysis and dynamic modeling. The aim was to understand the current state of governance in the region and identify clues for more sustainable land management. The use and conservation of Caatinga are negotiated at multiple levels, which are only sporadically interlinked. The conversion of forest land into alternative land uses shifts and shares responsibility among different sectors, while cross-sectoral cooperation is rarely observed. The region and its population face massive prejudices. Obstructing attitudes, such as thinking in dichotomies, and paternalistic and opportunistic approaches, are being addressed by some new coalitions taking alternative action. It is unlikely that these isolated initiatives will converge by themselves to a larger transformation toward sustainable resource use. There is a need to bring the dispersed actions in a more focused and coordinated approach, integrating socioeconomic and ecological concerns, values, and partnerships.

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Scenarios of climate and land-use change,water demand and water availability for the São Francisco River basin

Cited by 16 publications

References 38 publications

Decision Support for the (Inter-)Basin Management of Water Resources Using Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling

Decision Support for the (Inter-)Basin Management of Water Resources Using Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling

Land Cover Changes Implications in Energy Flow and Water Cycle in São Francisco Basin, Brazil, over the Past Seven Decades

A multi-method approach to explore environmental governance: a case study of a large, densely populated dry forest region of the neotropics

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