Scenarios of rare earth elements demand driven by automotive electrification in China: 2018–2030

Li, Xiangyang; Ge, Jianping; Chen, Weiqiang; Wang, Peng

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.02.003

Cited by 75 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…12 Moreover, there will also be rapid growth in electric vehicles, electric motors, and consumer electronics in China, increasing the competition for REs. 24 Thus, the global wind-power ambitions could potentially face more severe RE constraints than our result indicated.…”

Section: Articlementioning

confidence: 66%

“…Under the AS scenario, which keeps the global average temperature rise below 2 C, the amount of Nd, Pr, and Dy required for wind-turbine manufacturing will be two to four times that of their current total production capacity. Given the fierce competition with other newly emerging industries, such as electronics, electric vehicles, and industrial robots, 23,24 all of the produced REs flowing into the wind-power industry would be unrealistic, implying the future potential shortage of REs to meet the ambitious wind-power-development goals without rapid expansion of the RE production capacity. However, the observed historical average mine production growth rates of Nd, Pr, and Dy remained at an extremely low level during 1998-2016 25 because of environmental and geopolitical constraints.…”

Section: Conflicts Between Global Wind Power and Resmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Critical Rare-Earth Elements Mismatch Global Wind-Power Ambitions

et al. 2020

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Section: Articlementioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Conflicts Between Global Wind Power and Resmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical Rare-Earth Elements Mismatch Global Wind-Power Ambitions

et al. 2020

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“…Zhou et al [14] applied the same curve to A04 as for A01. Li et al [25] decreased the number of levels from four for A01 to three for A04, using thresholds of HHI 1500 and 2500. The limits of the levels applied in this approach are identical to those from Rosenau-Tornow et al [22] for A01 and A02.…”

Section: Concentration (A)mentioning

confidence: 99%

An Overview of Indicator Choice and Normalization in Raw Material Supply Risk Assessments

et al. 2021

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Supply risk assessments are an integral part of raw material criticality assessments frequently used at the country or company level to identify raw materials of concern. However, the indicators used in supply risk assessments to estimate the likelihood of supply disruptions vary substantially. Here, we summarize and evaluate the use of supply risk indicators and their normalization to supply risk scores in 88 methods published until 2020. In total, we find 618 individual applications of supply risk criteria with 98 unique criteria belonging to one of ten indicator categories. The most often used categories of supply risk indicators are concentration, scarcity, and political instability. The most frequently used criteria are the country concentration of production, depletion time of reserves, and geopolitical risk. Indicator measurements and normalizations vary substantially between different methods for the same criterion. Our results can be used for future raw material criticality assessments to screen for suitable supply risk indicators and generally accepted indicator normalizations. We also find a further need for stronger empirical evidence of widely used indicators.

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“…面对疫情全球大流行、国际金融危机、欧美经济深度衰退、中美贸易摩擦、转型升级等重大挑战，中国经济正迈向高质量发展 [33] ，亟需新的增长点。一个国家或地区经济增长的动力从短期看是来自于资本、劳动力等生产要素的投入，但长期的增长还要依赖于技术进步所带来的全要素生产率的提高，即技术进步是经济增长的源动力 [34,35] 。如通过大力发展 5G、特高压、太阳能和风力发电技术、人工智能、工业互联网、城际高速铁路和城际轨道交通、新能源汽车充电桩等创新型技术，以技术进步稳增长 [33] 。经济增长会进一步影响关键金属需求。首先，经济增长将作用于战略新兴产业链中各节点，通过产业间的横纵向关系，推动关键矿产上游和下游产业链高端技术的发展，拉动太阳能和风力发电技术、新能源车及充电桩板块等建设规模，进而对所需的镉、碲、铅、锌、钴、锂等关键金属需求产生影响 [36][37][38][39] 通信站、物流网、新能源汽车充电站等新基建密切相关的关键矿产 [14] ，是经济高质量增长和经济结构调整的关键，其需求必然会受到深远影响。…”

Section: 经济增长效应unclassified

A review on the impact of technological progress on critical metal mineral demand

DONG¹,

Huang²,

ZHONG³

et al. 2020

资源科学

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The emerging technologies, materials, and industries have a profound and increasing impact on the amount and structure of demand of critical metals. Understanding how technological progress affects the demand for critical metals and minerals is of certain practical significance for the high-quality economic transformation, the low-carbon energy transformation, and the critical minerals security in China. This paper conducted a systematic review of the literature on the relationship between technological progress and critical metal demand, and finds that: As resource security has become an important national demand issue, technological progress and critical metal demand prediction have gradually become a hot spot. However, there are few quantitative studies and lack of systematization in existing literature. And the accuracy of demand forecasting results needs to be further improved due to difficulties in measuring technological progress and data acquisition. In this paper, three micro-influencing mechanisms of technological progress on the demand for critical metals were applied: technological progress-economic growth, industrial structure and substitution and recycle-metal minerals, providing an overall analytical framework for subsequent studies. The focus of follow-up research in this field was proposed, that is, focusing on the coupling problem of low-carbon technology-critical metals and strategic emerging industries-critical metals, solving the measurement problem of technological progress in theoretical and econometric model, and promoting the construction of analytical frameworks for critical metal demand forecasting as technological revolution continues in the new era.

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Scenarios of rare earth elements demand driven by automotive electrification in China: 2018–2030

Cited by 75 publications

References 40 publications

Critical Rare-Earth Elements Mismatch Global Wind-Power Ambitions

Critical Rare-Earth Elements Mismatch Global Wind-Power Ambitions

An Overview of Indicator Choice and Normalization in Raw Material Supply Risk Assessments

A review on the impact of technological progress on critical metal mineral demand

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