Scenarios to explore the futures of the emerging technology of organic and large area electronics

Abstract

Emerging technologies pose challenges for futures research because of their uncertainties combined with promises. Actors are anticipating and acting strategically. Sociotechnical scenarios building on endogenous futures support and enlighten actors. Such scenarios contribute to "strategic intelligence" about the technologies and their embedding in society. Organic and large area electronics promise to substitute silicon-based technologies, but firms and potential users are reluctant to invest. Ways to break through this "waiting game" are the starting point for scenarios that were developed as in an input in strategy articulation workshops with different stakeholders and third parties. The scenarios are offered as they were an input in the workshops and are annotated to show the robustness of their construction. Recent developments confirm the diagnosis of the dynamics of the domain. Keywords Scenarios. Endogenous futures. Waiting games. Organic and large area electronics. Strategy articulation workshops 1 It has actually been developed and applied for other domains by Robinson (cf. [2]), Parandian (cf. [3]), and Te Kulve (cf. [4]).

Future-orientated approaches to curriculum development: fictive scripting

“…The participants in this research also recognise the scripts as reasonable descriptions of possible future events were degrees to be rolled out; for example, in Design, where participants suggest that 'this is exactly what design is', and in EMC where staff state that 'this is certainly a realistic scenario'. The particular kind of learning of interest here is anticipatory learning which concerns gaining an understanding of possible consequences following actions taken in the present (Parandian & Rip, 2013). As was suggested in the introduction, it is difficult to unambiguously and clearly make claims in evaluative enquiry into the effects of interventions.…”

“…The instructions to the authors, drawing from the literature on fictive scripting (De Laat, 2000;Parandian & Rip, 2013) were, firstly, that the scripts, though fictitious, had to be plausible. For example, in the demonstration script in the Appendix, the notion that 'Designers live in a rapidly evolving world' in which technologies quickly become obsolete is a current development familiar to those in the field.…”

“…All three workshops illustrated participant learning but space only permits the description of two of these cases, one from each of the two different fields. Each case was then evaluated in terms of whether indications could be found within the ebb and flow of workshop discussion and argumentation that the intervention helped to promote 'learning through anticipation' (Parandian & Rip, 2013) among the participants.…”

“…This is because participants may be confronted with views from constituencies other than their own and so question their prior assumptions, which has the potential to promote learning leading to new understandings. In technology forecasting workshops, for example, there are typically representatives from the university technology innovation team as well as representatives from work/society who would be expected to have an interest in the use of the technology (Parandian & Rip, 2013). The situation can be likened to curriculum design in which new, possible qualifications (such as degrees) are designed by lecturers within universities and taken up by workplaces and society.…”

Limits to prediction: Europeanizing technology in an expert forum

“…Driven by a need for strategic reasoning, a diverse array of new institutions designed to advise governments and policymakers on emerging technologies have emerged in recent years, drawing in part on concepts and methodologies from Futures Studies (FS). A long, if fragmented, tradition of examining the aims and means of prediction might enable scholars in FS and related fields to offer input to practitioners charged with delivering estimates and recommendations for public policy-such as in the form of technology assessment methodologies involving diverse groups of stakeholders and experts [1]. Moreover, institutional developments that in certain ways operationalize FS approaches in a policy context, might offer interesting objects of study in their own right.…”