Science in support of Amazonian conservation in the 21st century: the case of Brazil

Abstract

This article presents a 21st Century agenda for Amazonian conservation. The agenda calls for developing a system of refugia and a scientific methodology for predicting impacts of the infrastructure development vision for the region. It also calls for a collaborative approach to conservation planning, in the interest of fruitful engagement with decision-makers and stakeholders. The ideas explored here emerged from the collaboration of peers over a decade, which culminated in a panel presentation, Scientific Analysis, and Simulation Models to Support Conservation and Development Decision-Making, at the Tools and Strategies Workshop held at the University of Florida in October, 2017.Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.

Avoiding Amazonian Catastrophes: Prospects for Conservation in the 21st Century

“…Fully implemented, it will transform Amazonia into a transportation hub with multimodal capacity including highways, waterways, railways, and ports. 5 Furthermore, it will electrify the South American nations by developing the region's enormous hydropower potential. 20,21 The impact of IIRSA + on Amazonia cannot but be dramatic.…”

“…This means that a tipping point threshold could be passed unknowingly, with undesirable consequences for both environment and economy (Supplemental Experimental Procedures, General Information, Cumulative and Synergistic Effects). 5,63 Avoiding Amazonian Catastrophes Ironically, a tipping point catastrophe would undercut IIRSA's development objectives by disrupting the rainfall cycle, thereby reducing moisture transport through the South American continent. This would harm agriculture not just in Amazonia but also in Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, and possibly even the Figure 4).…”

“…The Tapajó s River is to become the Mississippi of Brazil, and the Amazon and its tributaries, the Great Lakes System of South America. 5,19 (Fearnside, 2019, AAG, conference) Given the momentum of IIRSA + and the political climate of the times, we should not discount these metaphors as figures of speech. They might well portend the future in the absence of decisive action.…”

“…Modeling techniques capable of generating the necessary information are available. 5 Such techniques, although computationally intensive, could be used to assess alternative infrastructure portfolios in the interest of sustainability. Indigenous Resistance.…”

“…4 Most worrisome is an infrastructure program, the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America (IIRSA), which dwarfs all previous development efforts undertaken in Amazonia. 5,6 Given the established link between deforestation and infrastructure, especially for transportation, it is reasonable to question if a new wave of forest clearing will build, just as global warming begins to affect the region. [7][8][9][10][11] The present article addresses IIRSA in light of conservation concerns about a so-called ''tipping point,'' a magnitude of deforestation that compromises rainfall recycling, inducing a biome shift from moist tropical forest to tropical savanna, with dire conse-quences for biodiversity, carbon sequestration, climate regulation, and dependent agricultural systems.…”