The risk for endemicity of ASF in the eastern neighbouring countries of the EU and spread of ASFV to unaffected areas was updated until 31/01/2014. The assessment was based on a literature review and expert knowledge elicitation. The risk that ASF is endemic in Georgia, Armenia and the Russian Federation has increased from moderate to high, particularly due to challenges in outbreak control in the backyard production sector. The risk that ASFV will spread further into unaffected areas from these countries, mainly through movement of contaminated pork, infected pigs or contaminated vehicles, has remained high. In Ukraine and Belarus, the risk for ASF endemicity was considered moderate. Although only few outbreaks have been reported, which have been stamped out, only limited activities are ongoing to facilitate early detection of secondary spread. Further, there is a continuous risk of ASFV re-introduction from the Russian Federation, due to transboundary movements of people, pork or infected wild boar. The number of backyard farms is greatest in the west of Ukraine and westwards spread of ASFV could result in an infected area near the EU border, difficult to control. In Georgia, Armenia and the Russian Federation, the risk for endemicity of ASF in the wild boar population is considered moderate, mainly due to spill-over from the domestic pig population, whereas in Ukraine and Belarus this was considered to be low. In those areas in the Russian Federation where wild boar density is high, this risk may be higher. Intensive hunting pressure in affected wild boar populations may increase the risk for spread, possibly with severe implications across international borders. The risk for different matrices to be infected/contaminated and maintain infectious ASFV at the moment of transportation into the EU was assessed and ranged from very high for frozen meat, to very low for crops.
SUMMARYFollowing a request from the European Commission, EFSA"s Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW Panel) was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on African swine fever and to update the significance of the occurrence and risk of endemicity of ASF in the countries neighbouring the EU (Term of Reference 1, ToR1). Secondly, the AHAW Panel was asked to rank the possible pathways of introduction of ASFV into the EU on the basis of their level of risk, with a view to enhance preparedness and prevention (ToR2).To address the first ToR, an update was provided on the ASF situation in the eastern neighbouring countries of the EU since the last Scientific Opinion on African swine fever of the EFSA Panel on Animal health and Welfare (EFSA AHAW Panel, 2010a). To do so, an extensive literature review was carried out, describing the geographic distribution of ASFV, the epidemiological features of the outbreaks and challenges for ASFV prevention and control in the eastern neighbouring countries of the EU. The literature review also screened if new information has become available about the appearance of clinical signs and the detection of a...