Scoping review of Japanese encephalitis virus transmission models

Abstract

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) causes approximately 100,000 clinical cases and 25,000 deaths annually worldwide, mainly in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific and mostly in children. JEV is transmitted from competent hosts to humans through the bite of mosquitoes, and the abiotic environment, such as seasonal rainfall, influences transmission. Transmission models have an important role in understanding disease dynamics and developing prevention and control strategies to limit the impact of infectious diseases. Our goal was to investigate how transmission models capture JEV infection dynamics and their role in predicting and controlling infection. This was achieved by identifying published JEV transmission models, describing their features, and identifying their limitations, to guide future modelling. A PRISMA-ScR guided scoping review of peer-reviewed JEV transmission models was conducted. Databases searched included PubMed, ProQuest, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Of 881 full text papers available in English, 29 were eligible for data extraction. Publication year ranged from 1975 to 2023. The median number of host populations represented in each model was 3 (range: 1–8; usually humans, mosquitoes and pigs). Most (72% [n=21]) models were deterministic, using ordinary differential equations to describe transmission. Ten models were applied (representing a real JEV transmission setting) and validated with field data, while the remaining 19 models were theoretical. In the applied models, data from only a small proportion of countries in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific were used. Limitations included gaps in knowledge of local JEV epidemiology, vector attributes and the impact of prevention and control strategies, along with a lack of model validation with field data. The lack and limitations of models highlight that further research to understand JEV epidemiology is needed and that there is opportunity to develop and implement applied models to improve control strategies for at-risk populations of animals and humans.