BLOEM: A spatially explicit model of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, applied to Brazil

Abstract

Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large-scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost-effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade-offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways.

Nature‐based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net‐zero emissions by 2050

“…Our net‐zero pathways (FCNZ and FC+NZ scenarios) bridge the gap to net‐zero GHG emissions by 2050 by forcing the energy sector to enhance efficiency, increase biofuel use, and deploy costly CDR methods. Since Brazil already has a low‐emissions energy system with a large share of hydropower and considerable penetration of biofuels, the highest contribution from this sector is likely to come mainly from BECCS (Köberle et al., 2020, 2022; Tagomori et al., 2023). Moreover, our modelling approach indicates that the energy sector alone is not likely to bridge the gap to net‐zero GHG emissions (BASENZ scenario).…”

Bioenergy in the European energy transition

“…Most analyses using IAMs are conducted globally, allowing for an enhanced representation of large-scale bioenergy dynamics encompassing interregional delivery chains. Some research streams have begun to apply IAM frameworks at the national scale 52,53 , whilst other efforts focus on regional assessments from downscaling macro-regional outputs of global IAMS 54 . The benefit of a regional application is an enhanced value for policydecision making which often occurs at the national or supranational level.…”