The emergence of the Millennial generation into adulthood is a major force reshaping cities in the United States. A generation of some 83 million members, the Millennials, born 1980 to 1999, even outnumbers the giant baby boom generation. With their coming of age, longstanding trends of urban decline are being reversed, at least temporarily. Population is growing faster in some cities than in their suburbs, young adults are living more densely in inner-city districts, and the white population is growing again in cities where it had declined for decades (Roberts, 2014a(Roberts, , 2014b.The question is, how permanent is this growing urban presence: do the new urban Millennials foretell the future of cities or might it all be a temporary phase (Pendall, 2012)? An implicit argument for permanence is the claim that members of the Millennial generation have new preferences for urban living unlike those of their parents or their immediate predecessors, Generation X. Certainly there is evidence of difference, but it is not clear how strongly this will persist as the Millennials move into middle age. Demographers view Millennials as "stuck in place" by the collapsing housing market and Great Recession, with return to normal migration destinations expected upon recovery (Frey, 2012).This article advances the argument that the peak year of Millennial presence in inner city districts is 2015 and their declining impacts will become apparent before 2020. After a decade of rapid increase, we now can expect rapid slowing and then deconcentration. The explanation for why the urban episode
ABSTRACTThe rise and fall of the Millennial generation congregating in central cities is a product of life course meeting unique historical context. Three reinforcing cycles harmonized before 2010 to maximize Millennial presence, and then will harmonize in 2020 to reduce presence. In 2015, the peak Millennial birth cohort passed age 25, with smaller cohorts to follow. Job opportunity that had sharply worsened following the Great Recession is reversing, with renewed job growth opening entry positions, and with less competition from smaller cohorts. In housing, Millennials were doubled up at entry levels of their housing life cycle, blocked by older peers who were unable to turn over their apartments for better homes. With renewal of new construction and home buying, stronger vacancy chains will again stimulate outflow. The combined effect of the three reversed cycles will reduce central concentrations of young adults. Preferences may persist for urban walkability but, freed of their former constraints, preferences will now be expressed through choice from a broader range of locales. Cities and suburbs can compete for Millennials passing age 30 with walkable districts, transit, and better schools and housing.
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