Aims
To determine diabetic retinopathy (DR) prevalence, incidence, and whether distinct trajectories are associated with DR‐complicating Type 2 diabetes.
Methods
Retinal photographs from Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II (FDS2) participants with Type 2 diabetes recruited in 2008–2011 and who attended biennial assessments for up to 6 years were graded as no DR, mild non‐proliferative DR (NPDR), moderate NPDR or severe NPDR/proliferative DR. Baseline DR prevalence, and the cumulative incidence of moderate NPDR or worse in those without DR at baseline, were calculated. Group‐based DR trajectory modelling was performed. Logistic regression determined independent associates of incident moderate NPDR or worse and trajectory group membership.
Results
Of 1521 participants (mean age 65.6 years, 52.1% males, median diabetes duration 9.0 years; 98% of all FDS2 participants with Type 2 diabetes) with gradable baseline photographs, 563 (37.0%) had DR. During a median 6.1 years of follow‐up, 23 (3.2%) without baseline DR developed at least moderate NPDR (crude incidence 6.1/1000 person‐years) with HbA1c the sole independent predictor (odds ratio [95% CI]: 1.62 [1.30–2.02] per 1% [11 mmol/mol] increase). Trajectory analysis showed two distinct groups, those with baseline/persistent DR (20%) and those remaining DR free (80%). Longer diabetes duration, insulin use, higher mean HbA1c, higher mean systolic blood pressure and higher mean urinary albumin: creatinine ratio all increased the odds (p ≤ 0.014) of being in the persistent DR trajectory group.
Conclusions
The low incidence of at least moderate NPDR reflects the trajectory analysis. The currently recommended biennial retinal screening frequency for individuals without DR could potentially be extended.