Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

Taylor, Andy; Brassington, Gary B.

doi:10.3390/jmse5030033

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…For example, as illustrated by Ray and Foster (2016), the precise timing and duration of when inundation due to tides will occur can be determined decades in advance. In some parts of the world, including Sydney, it is now not necessary to rely on only short‐term sea level forecast models (e.g., Allen et al, 2018; Taylor & Brassington, 2017) to predict when impact‐producing extreme sea levels may occur. However, these models will be important in forecasting the severity of inundation, especially in cases where sea level anomalies are large.…”

Section: Implications For Adaptation—emergence Times Aris Emission mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Rise Driving Increasingly Predictable Coastal Inundation in Sydney, Australia

et al. 2020

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As global mean sea level continues to rise, thresholds corresponding to coastal inundation impacts are exceeded more frequently. This paper aims to relate sea level rise (SLR) observations and projections to their physical on-the-ground impacts. Using a large coastal city as an example, we show that in Sydney, Australia, frequencies of minor coastal inundation have increased from 1.6 to 7.8 days per year between 1914 and present day. We attribute over 80% of the observed coastal inundation events between 1970 and 2015 to the predominantly anthropogenic increases in global mean sea level. Further, we find that impact-producing coastal inundation will occur weekly by 2050 under high-and medium-emission/SLR scenarios and daily by 2100 under high emissions. The proportion of tide-only coastal inundation events (i.e., where no storm surge is required to exceed flood thresholds) will increase with SLR, such that most coastal inundation events, including those considered historically severe, will become a predictable consequence of SLR and astronomical tides. These findings are important for coastal managers as frequency, severity, and predictability of inundation impacts can all now be related to the amount of SLR (e.g., a planning allowance or SLR projection). By incorporating known historical inundation events, this allows contextualization, visualization, and localization of global SLR and the changing nature of future coastal inundation risk. Plain Language Summary As sea levels rise, the daily highest tide reaches higher and further inland, and as a result, we see coastal flooding more frequently. Coastal flooding is when roads, carparks, walking paths, gardens, and, in more extreme cases, homes and businesses are impacted by high sea levels. Using Sydney, Australia, as an example, we find that most coastal flooding events we observe today would not have happened without human-caused sea level rise. Further, coastal flooding is expected to occur in Sydney on average once per week by 2050 and every day by 2100 if high greenhouse gas emissions continue. In the past, the most severe coastal flooding impacts, such as flooding of main roads and private property, only occurred with large coastal storm events. However, we find that these severe floods will occur much more frequently as sea levels continue to rise, as they will eventually occur on the daily high tides. As the timing and heights of daily high tides are driven by the Sun, Moon, and the seasons, these severe coastal floods will become very predictable. This will have implications for the coastal and emergency managers tasked to deal with this changing risk.

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Section: Implications For Adaptation—emergence Times Aris Emission mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Rise Driving Increasingly Predictable Coastal Inundation in Sydney, Australia

et al. 2020

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“…Similar procedures are implemented elsewhere in the world, so in this paper we replace the regional models with GTSM. This is the forward Global Tide and Surge Model developed at Deltares on the basis of Delft-FM (Flexible Mesh) (Verlaan et al, 2015;Irazoqui Apecechea et al, 2018). The version used in this paper has a resolution from around 50 km in the open ocean to around 5 km at the coast.…”

Section: Tide-and-surge Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radiational tides: their double-counting in storm surge forecasts and contribution to the Highest Astronomical Tide

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Tide predictions based on tide-gauge observations are not just the astronomical tides; they also contain radiational tides – periodic sea-level changes due to atmospheric conditions and solar forcing. This poses a problem of double-counting for operational forecasts of total water level during storm surges. In some surge forecasting, a regional model is run in two modes: tide only, with astronomic forcing alone; and tide and surge, forced additionally by surface winds and pressure. The surge residual is defined to be the difference between these configurations and is added to the local harmonic predictions from gauges. Here we use the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) based on Delft-FM to investigate this in the UK and elsewhere, quantifying the weather-related tides that may be double-counted in operational forecasts. We show that the global S2 atmospheric tide is captured by the tide-and-surge model and observe changes in other major constituents, including M2. The Lowest and Highest Astronomical Tide levels, used in navigation datums and design heights, are derived from tide predictions based on observations. We use our findings on radiational tides to quantify the extent to which these levels may contain weather-related components.

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“…The Bureau of Meteorology has recently undertaken a project to enhance its operational storm surge forecasting system. The project consists of three key components: 1) an event-based TC ensemble storm surge system implemented for Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia, 2) a national storm surge system for forecasting anomalous sea levels due to mid-latitude storms and tropical lows (Allen et al, 2018), and 3) operationalisation of an existing aggregate sea level monitoring and alert system at tide gauge locations (Taylor and Brassington, 2017). There are many scientific and technical commonalities to each of the three components of the project.…”

Section: List Of Tablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bureau Research Report

Greenslade¹,

Taylor²,

Freeman³

et al. 2018

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The Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it.

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Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems

Cited by 10 publications

References 34 publications

Sea Level Rise Driving Increasingly Predictable Coastal Inundation in Sydney, Australia

Sea Level Rise Driving Increasingly Predictable Coastal Inundation in Sydney, Australia

Radiational tides: their double-counting in storm surge forecasts and contribution to the Highest Astronomical Tide

Bureau Research Report

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