Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century

Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Monselesan, Didier; McInnes, Kathleen L.

doi:10.1002/2017gl074176

Cited by 55 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The biases in MHW metrics shown here, in historical runs at different resolutions, should also be seen in projection runs of different resolutions. There is currently a suite of resolutions of global ocean model projection runs completed, including coarse (CMIP5; e.g., Frölicher et al, ), and eddy‐rich (e.g., Zhang et al, ) simulations. In the near‐future, some CMIP6 runs will have an eddy‐permitting resolution (Eyring et al, ).…”

Section: Discussion and Final Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

Pilo

Holbrook

Kiss

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Sustained extreme temperature events in the ocean, referred to as marine heatwaves (MHWs), generate substantial ecological, social, and economic impacts. Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean-sea ice model at coarse (1 • ), eddy-permitting (0.25 • ), and eddy-rich (0.1 • ) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad-scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer-lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1 • configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse-resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy-rich model. Plain Language SummaryMarine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations-with low, medium, and high resolutions-when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less-frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high-resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points:• Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer-lasting, and less frequent in models than in observations • The higher the model resolution, the less biased the marine heatwave metrics • Eddy-permitting models can be used for global marine heatwave analyses, but eddy-rich models are optimal for regional analyses

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Section: Discussion and Final Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

Pilo

Holbrook

Kiss

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…However, coastal users in general still lack precise information to convert SLR from global models to a local on-shelf scale, including distortion of the SLR signal on continental shelves [135,136]. Furthermore, while coastal subsidence or uplift cause additional regional to local sea level variability ( Figure 5), only the effects of the global isostatic adjustment and the response of the solid Earth to current large scale ice and water mass redistributions are usually included in sea level projections.…”

Section: Barriers To Providing Regional To Local Variability Of Sea Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

Cozannet

Nicholls

Hinkel

et al. 2017

JMSE

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For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS). To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1) research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2) cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

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“…More recent studies on GMSL reconstructions and satellite altimetry measurements confirm anticipated increases in sea level [3,4], whereas studies with an emphasis on icesheet contribution to SLR estimate that the rise in GMSL could exceed 2 m by 2100 [5,6]. Projections of SLR for the Australian coastline are similar to GMSL projections [7], even though regionalised studies for Australia indicate that SLR exhibits significant regional differences [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…These three simulations for each estuary were then repeated for SLR increases of +0.4 m and +0.9 m to run 9 simulations in total per study site. SLR scenarios were selected in relation to the lower and upper boundary of the IPCC's AR5 SLR scenarios [2] and estimates of McInnes et al [7], Webb and Hennessy [33] and Zheng et al [8] for the Australian coastline. Furthermore, values of +0.4 and +0.9 m in SLR have been advocated by the NSW state government as SLR planning benchmarks.…”

Section: Flood Drivers and Slr Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Hydrodynamic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Wave-Dominated Australian Estuaries with Differing Geomorphology

Kumbier

Carvalho

Woodroffe

2018

JMSE

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Sea-level rise (SLR) will affect the hydrodynamics and flooding characteristics of estuaries which are a function of the geomorphology of particular estuarine systems. This study presents a numerical modelling of coastal flooding due to drivers such as spring-tides, storm surges and river inflows and examines how these will change under sea-level increases of 0.4 m and 0.9 m for two estuaries that are at different geomorphological evolutionary stages of infill. Our results demonstrate that estuarine response to SLR varies between different types of estuaries, and detailed modelling is necessary to understand the nature and extent of inundation in response to SLR. Comparison of modelling results indicates that floodplain elevation is fundamental in order to identify the most vulnerable systems and estimate how inundation extents and depths may change in the future. Floodplains in mature estuarine systems may drown and experience a considerable increase in inundation depths once a certain threshold in elevation has been exceeded. By contrast, immature estuarine systems may be subject to increases in relative inundation extent and substantial changes in hydrodynamics such as tidal range and current velocity. The unique nature of estuaries does not allow for generalisations; however, classifications of estuarine geomorphology could indicate how certain types of estuary may respond to SLR.

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Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century

Cited by 55 publications

References 52 publications

Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

Modelling Hydrodynamic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Wave-Dominated Australian Estuaries with Differing Geomorphology

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