Sea level rise along the East Asia and Chinese coasts and its role on the morphodynamic response of the Yangtze River Estuary

Zhou, Xiaoyan; Zheng, Jinhai; Doong, Dong-Jiing; Demirbilek, Zeki

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.03.014

Cited by 43 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…In addition to reproducing the morphological evolution, models can be used as virtual labs to perform various investigations of interest. X. Zhou et al () implemented this approach to investigate the impact of SLR on the long‐term morphological development of the Yangtze Estuary. Van der Wegen et al () used a 1‐D model to reproduce a mudflat profile in South San Francisco Bay and quantify the impact of a 100‐year SLR.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

et al. 2019

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Anticipated sea level rise (SLR) threatens intertidal areas and associated ecosystems in estuaries worldwide. There is a need to develop validated modeling tools to assess the impact of SLR on estuarine morphodynamics. This study explores the morphological impact of SLR on a channel-shoal system in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of San Francisco Bay, California, using a 3-D, process-based modeling approach (Delft3D) including density currents and wave action. The Bay underwent considerable morphologic development in response to variations in fluvial sediment load and discharge associated with a period of hydraulic mining for gold and later damming in the watershed. The availability of a unique 150-year, 30-year sequenced, bathymetric data set provided a rare opportunity for model validation. We investigate a 250-year period of morphodynamic evolution including a 150-year hindcast and a 100-year forecast with different SLR scenarios. The model shows significant skill in hindcasting volumes and patterns of bathymetric development during both net depositional and erosional (1951-onward) periods. Forecasts show that SLR alters the Bay's erosional trend to a depositional trend again. Despite increased sediment trapping rates, the intertidal mudflats drown under all modeled SLR scenarios (42, 84, and 167 cm by end of the 21st century). Our work highlights the potential of using process-based models to assess the morphodynamic impact of SLR. The study also suggests that SLR can greatly increase the loss of intertidal area when landward migration is not possible. Sustainable management strategies are required to safeguard these valuable intertidal habitats.Plain Language Summary Sea level rise is expected to affect coastal areas all around the world including the estuarine environment. In particular, the estuarine intertidal area comprises delicate and valuable ecosystems. Anticipated sea level rise poses questions on the fate of this unique estuarine environment. In this research, we aim to validate a numerical model against observed bed level developments in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of San Francisco Estuary, to make trustworthy predictions of the estuarine bed including future sea level rise. The model included detailed tidal water movement, wind-wave action, sediment transports, and resulting bed level updates. Our hindcast (1856-1983) showed significant skill in reproducing observed bed level developments. Our forecast shows that sea level rise slowly drowns the intertidal environment. The sea level rise rate is larger than the accretion rate of the mudflats. Mitigation and adaptation strategies are required to ensure the sustainability of the estuarine environment against climate-induced changes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

et al. 2019

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“…For 2012, the Chinese national authorities indicated that US$ 2 billion of economic loss and nine lives were the result of several large storm surge events [State Oceanic Administration (SOA), 2013a]. Additional impacts are caused by salty water intrusions [Cartwright et al, 2004;Zhang et al, 2009], morphological changes [Yang et al, 2003;Zhou et al, 2013], increased coastline erosion , and ecosystem changes [Fan and Li, 2006]. Hallegatte et al [2013] classify the Chinese coast as one of the most vulnerable areas under climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Feng

Tsimplis

2014

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

100

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Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr 21 . The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

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“…CSIRO developed global SLR projections between 2030 and 2100 for the three emission scenarios (QLD Gov: Queensland Government, 2014). Projected regional SLR varies from the global mean trend due to several effects including meteorological, oceanographic, and geological influences (Zhou et al, 2013). Therefore it is important to use the regional projections of SLR for simulating the hydrodynamic model to obtain appropriate predictions of future extreme events.…”

Section: Impacts Of Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events to assess the impact of climate change in a large basin with limited data

Amir

Khan

Rasul

et al. 2015

J Flood Risk Management

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Flood modelling of a large basin like the Fitzroy is a difficult task due to its large catchment size, the long duration of flood events, the non-uniform spatial distribution of rainfall and a lack of required data for modelling purposes. This paper presents a systematic methodology for the flood modelling of the Fitzroy Basin using hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling approach with Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities. This study developed five flood scenarios analysing historical flood events and considering three impacts of climate change: upstream subcatchments flooding, local rainfall fluctuations and sea level rise. A hydrologic model was developed within the wider Fitzroy Basin with the five upstream subcatchments and the upper Fitzroy subcatchment in order to simulate discharge data for these scenarios at the Gap measurement location. An integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic model was developed for the lower Fitzroy subcatchment where output discharges of the hydrologic model were considered as the upstream boundaries. The peak flood levels, peak flow rates and flood inundation durations at Rockhampton city were identified using this integrated model. GIS capabilities were specially used for automatic watershed delineation and river cross-section extraction from Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. The methodology proposed here is a case study and can be applied to other similar basins or catchments.

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Sea level rise along the East Asia and Chinese coasts and its role on the morphodynamic response of the Yangtze River Estuary

Cited by 43 publications

References 19 publications

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events to assess the impact of climate change in a large basin with limited data

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