Sea Level Rise During Past 40 Years Determined from Satellite and in Situ Observations

Cabanes, Cécile; Cazenave, Anny; Provost, C. Le

doi:10.1126/science.1063556

Cited by 253 publications

(266 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…SLR of several cm is likely from thermal expansion of sea water, but eventually, sea level could rise several meters from melting of continental ground-based ice, especially in Greenland and Antarctica (Alley et al 2005). Although it is likely that there will be regional differences in coastal sea levels (Mitrovica et al 2001;Cabanes et al 2001), because the historical rate of mean sea level increase at California tide gages is quite similar to the estimated global SLR, the hypothesis used here is that future SLR in California can be approximated by future SLR estimated for the global ocean. Projected ranges in SLR due to thermal expansion (TE) are a natural outgrowth of recent projections of warming over the next century, and are available from climate simulations of the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions scenarios.…”

Section: Projections Of Global Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 do not indicate recent increases in the rates of SLR along the California Coast, but rather have been relatively flat since about 1983. This is because mean coastal sea levels depend on regional dynamical adjustments, and thus can be significantly different from the global mean (Cabanes et al 2001). However, viewed over the longer term, rising sea levels have had a strong coastal influence along the entire California coast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast

et al. 2008

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California's coastal observations and global model projections indicate thatCalifornia's open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century. During the last several decades, the upward historical trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have been approximately 20 cm/century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. In the next several decades, warming produced by climate model simulations indicates that sea level rise (SLR) could substantially exceed the rate experienced during modern human development along the California coast and estuaries. A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle-upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios. Projecting SLR from the ocean warming in GCMs, observational evidence of SLR, and separate calculations using a simple climate model yields a range of potential sea level increases, from 11 to 72 cm, by the 2070-2099 period. The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Niño related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly sea level projections for 2005-2100. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides, surge and waves resulting from storms, and also freshwater floods from Sierra and coastal mountain catchments. The occurrence of extreme sea levels is pronounced when these factors coincide. The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, relative to current levels, follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases.

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Section: Projections Of Global Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast

et al. 2008

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“…In an important paper, Cabanes et al (16) demonstrate that the Douglas-Peltier estimate is biased by a concentration of tide stations in regions of recent warming. A radical downward revision of the global mean rise would go a long way toward resolving the enigma.…”

Section: Sea Level During the Late Holocene Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Twentieth century sea level: An enigma

Munk

2002

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

150

129

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“…A 2-3 mm/year global sea level rise has been observed in the T/P and Jason-1 records (e.g., Cabanes et al 2001;Nerem and Mitchum 2001). Superimposed on this steady rise is a clear seasonal signal of several millimeters in amplitude.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Seasonal global mean sea level change from satellite altimeter, GRACE, and geophysical models

Chen¹,

Wilson

Tapley³

et al. 2005

J Geodesy

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We estimate seasonal global mean sea level changes using different data resources, including sea level anomalies from satellite radar altimetry, ocean temperature and salinity from the World Ocean Atlas 2001, time-variable gravity observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, and terrestrial water storage and atmospheric water vapor changes from the NASA global land data assimilation system and National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis atmospheric model. The results from all estimates are consistent in amplitude and phase at the annual period, in some cases with remarkably good agreement. The results provide a good measure of average annual variation of water stored within atmospheric, land, and ocean reservoirs. We examine how varied treatments of degree-2 and degree-1 spherical harmonics from GRACE, laser ranging, and Earth rotation variations affect GRACE mean sea level change estimates. We also show that correcting the standard equilibrium ocean pole tide correction for mass conser- vation is needed when using satellite altimeter data in global mean sea level studies. These encouraging results indicate that is reasonable to consider estimating longer-term time series of water storage in these reservoirs, as a way of tracking climate change.

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Sea Level Rise During Past 40 Years Determined from Satellite and in Situ Observations

Cited by 253 publications

References 9 publications

Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast

Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast

Twentieth century sea level: An enigma

Seasonal global mean sea level change from satellite altimeter, GRACE, and geophysical models

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