Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

Church, John A.; White, Neil J.

doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1

Cited by 1,317 publications

(860 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The EOF1 time series from this shorter record analysis are also significantly correlated with the IPO index. We note that SODA captures the same interannual variability estimated in RecSSHA-which has a strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation signature in SSHA and SSTA compared with numerous previous studies [e.g., Church et al, 2004;Church and White, 2011].…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Evaluating SODA for Indo-Pacific Ocean decadal climate variability studies

Vargas-Hernández

Wijffels

Meyers

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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Estimates of changes in upper ocean temperature, heat content, and sea level are dependent on the coverage of subsurface observations in space and time. Historically, these data are sparse, which has limited our understanding of ocean climate variability and change mechanisms. Ocean state estimates, which effectively represent a model synthesis and integration of the available observations, including internal observations in the ocean and surface forcing, help to address the inhomogeneity of sparse observations in space and time. Here we evaluate the representativeness of ocean state estimates from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation Version 2.2.4 (SODA) data for studying Indo-Pacific Ocean decadal temperature and sea level variability over the period . The SODA data are evaluated against independent sea level anomalies from long-record tide gauges at Midway Island and Fremantle, reconstructed sea surface height anomalies, and sea surface height anomalies from TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter observations at the decadal time scale. This study demonstrates that SODA captures the characteristic Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the upper 200 m, and accurately represents these decadal changes against the independent observations. The SODA-product shows a meridional asymmetry of patterns that connect the western tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, apparently in relation to IPO changes. Regional sea level at the Midway Island and Fremantle tide gauges confirm this decadal connection and the relationship with the IPO. We concluded that SODA is potentially a useful tool to examine ocean decadal climate variability across the Indo-Pacific Ocean.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Evaluating SODA for Indo-Pacific Ocean decadal climate variability studies

Vargas-Hernández

Wijffels

Meyers

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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“…As shorthand, we later (section BRegional Projections and Emergence Time of the Forced Signal^) refer to these effects as BGeLi.^By this method, they estimated a trend of 1.2±0.2 mm year −1 for 1901 to 1990, which overlaps the AR5 range of 1.5±0.2 mm year −1 for the corresponding period, but is lower primarily because their estimate has very little sea level change during . Including the GeLi fingerprints is an advance over assuming geographically uniform sea level contributions from land ice (as in Church and White [18]), but estimating the magnitude of the weight factors for the many fingerprints used by Hay et al in the presence of large regional decadal variability is challenging given the time-varying and incomplete distribution of observations. Hamlington and Thompson [19] drew attention to the tide-gauges from the Arctic, Alaska and Japan that are included in Hay et al [17] but not the other reconstructions.…”

Section: Historical Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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“…Global mean sea level rise, due to rising ocean temperatures and mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, is currently estimated as 3.2 ± 0.4 mm year -1 over 1993(Church and White 2011 and is projected to accelerate under climate change. Changes in mean sea level will influence the frequency and impact of extreme sea level events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

et al. 2014

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Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled oceanatmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993-2010 and model reanalysis over 1981-2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981-2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by ElNino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.

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Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

Cited by 1,317 publications

References 38 publications

Evaluating SODA for Indo-Pacific Ocean decadal climate variability studies

Evaluating SODA for Indo-Pacific Ocean decadal climate variability studies

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

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