Sea level rise implications on future inland migration of coastal wetlands

Nevermann, Hannes; AghaKouchak, Amir; Shokri, Nima

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02421

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 29 publications

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“…Mangrove coverage, canopy height, and aboveground biomass may decrease when accelerating SLR rates exceed wetland drowning thresholds (Saintilan et al., 2023), especially in areas like Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast, where urban barriers also limit inland migration (Raabe & Stumpf, 2016). As mangroves expand their range poleward, they may encroach upon adjacent freshwater wetlands and upland ecosystems, further transforming coastal social‐ecological system structure and functions (Doyle et al., 2010; Nevermann et al., 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking temperature sensitivity of mangrove communities, populations and individuals across a tropical‐temperate transitional zone

Kang,

Kaplan,

Osland

2024

Journal of Ecology

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Climate change is reshaping coastal wetlands worldwide, driving ecosystem shifts like mangrove poleward expansion into saltmarshes in tropical‐temperate transitional zones. Though warming is recognized as the primary driver, a lack of detailed field studies limits our ability to predict mangrove responses to rapid climate warming. Here, we characterized how mangroves vary across a temperature gradient at 18 sites along Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast (USA). We used minimum air temperature (Tmin) derived from daily data from 1989 to 2021 as the independent variable and applied plot‐based and synoptic approaches to quantify species‐specific mangrove variation at community, population, and individual levels. We then used these results to spatially project future mangrove ecosystem properties under multiple warming scenarios. Across the Tmin gradient from −10.8 to −1.4°C, mangrove canopy height and coverage ranged from 0.4 to 11.5 m and 15% to 98%, respectively, with both exhibiting sigmoidal increases with Tmin. Estimated mangrove aboveground biomass ranged from 0 to 496.7 Mg/ha and showed a positive linear relationship with Tmin due both to the tall tree stratum's increased biomass per tree and higher abundance. While the population abundance and coverage of Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa had positive linear relationships with Tmin, Avicennia germinans exhibited a significant quadratic relationship, reflecting the higher freeze tolerance of this species. Such tolerance may stem from A. germinans' higher morphological plasticity observed at the individual level, adapting to cold stress by exhibiting a more shrub‐like architecture at colder sites. Based on these field‐derived quantitative relationships, we projected substantial increases in mangrove coverage and canopy height near current range limits, with tall A. germinans dominating in the north and R. mangle dominating the centre and south of the study region. Synthesis. To better predict the ecological consequences in coastal wetlands under future climate change, it is essential to understand how mangroves respond to winter temperature regimes across a temperature gradient. Collectively, these cross‐level and species‐specific results advance our understanding of mangrove temperature sensitivity and provide information about the future of coastal wetland structure and function in response to a changing climate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking temperature sensitivity of mangrove communities, populations and individuals across a tropical‐temperate transitional zone

Kang,

Kaplan,

Osland

2024

Journal of Ecology

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Foundations of modeling resilience of tidal saline wetlands to sea-level rise along the U.S. Pacific Coast

Marcot,

Thorne,

Carr

et al. 2023

Landsc Ecol

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Context Tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) are highly threatened from climate-change effects of sea-level rise. Studies of TSWs along the East Coast U.S. and elsewhere suggest significant likely losses over coming decades but needed are analytic tools gauged to Pacific Coast U.S. wetlands. Objectives We predict the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on the elevation capital (vertical) and migration potential (lateral) resilience of TSWs along the Pacific Coast U.S. over the period 2020 to 2150 under a 1.5-m SLR scenario, and identified TSWs at risk of most rapid loss of resilience. Here, we define vertical resilience as the amount of elevation capital and lateral resilience as the amount of TSW displacement area relative to existing area. Methods We used Bayesian network (BN) modeling to predict changes in resilience of TSWs as probabilities which can be useful in risk analysis and risk management. We developed the model using a database sample of 26 TSWs with 147 sediment core samples, among 16 estuary drainage areas along coastal California, Oregon, and Washington. Results We found that all TSW sites would lose at least 50% of their elevation capital resilience by 2060 to just before 2100, and 100% by 2070 to 2130, depending on the site. Under a 1.5-m sea-level rise scenario, nearly all sites in California will lose most or all of their lateral migration resilience. Resilience losses generally accelerated over time. In the BN model, elevation capital resilience is most sensitive to elevation capital at time t, mean tide level at time t, and change in sea level from time 0 to time t. Conclusions All TSW sites were projected with declines in resilience. Our model can further aid decision-making such as prioritizing sites for potential management adaptation strategies. We also identified variables most influencing resilience predictions and thus those potentially prioritized for monitoring or development of strategies to prevent loss regionally.

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Enhancing Assessments of Coastal Wetland Migration Potential with Sea-level Rise: Accounting for Uncertainty in Elevation Data, Tidal Data, and Future Water Levels

Enwright,

Osland,

Thurman

et al. 2024

Estuaries and Coasts

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Sea level rise implications on future inland migration of coastal wetlands

Cited by 4 publications

References 29 publications

Linking temperature sensitivity of mangrove communities, populations and individuals across a tropical‐temperate transitional zone

Linking temperature sensitivity of mangrove communities, populations and individuals across a tropical‐temperate transitional zone

Foundations of modeling resilience of tidal saline wetlands to sea-level rise along the U.S. Pacific Coast

Enhancing Assessments of Coastal Wetland Migration Potential with Sea-level Rise: Accounting for Uncertainty in Elevation Data, Tidal Data, and Future Water Levels

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