Sea Level Variability around Japan during the Twentieth Century Simulated by a Regional Ocean Model

Sasaki, Yoshi N.; Washizu, Ryosuke; Yasuda, Tohya; Minobe, Shoshiro

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0497.1

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Notably, the MSL rise in R3 (+24.3 mm year -1 ) is larger than in the other regions, whereas no compound effect is noticeable as of R1 and R2. Several previous works have shown that MSL is rising along the Japanese coast (24)(25)(26), nevertheless, we report the compound effect of storm surge and MSL change for the first time.…”

Section: Observational Evidence Of Storm Surge Changecontrasting

confidence: 48%

Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan

Islam¹,

Satoh²,

Sawada³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Variability in storminess, storm surge, and mean sea level (MSL) can substantially alter coastal hazards associated with extreme sea levels (ESL). However, detection and attribution of past changes in tropical cyclone (TC) and related storm surge activity are hampered by inhomogeneous TC records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in storm surge levels in Japan from 1980–2019, a period when observational platforms including tide gauges and storm records are highly consistent. The analyses illustrate statistical evidence of increasing surge annual maxima in several places including the bay area of Tokyo since 1980 and this rate of change is comparable to those observed for MSL rise over the same period. These findings contrast the current hypothesis on the flood adaptation plan in which future surge extremes will remain the same. We demonstrate that the change in surge annual maxima reflects the combined effect of a consistent northeastward shifting of TC landfall location, intensifying and widening of TC. The substantial influence of these TC meteorological variables on surge levels coupled with MSL rise over long periods suggests that current coastal planning practices including critical heights for flood defenses, might be inadequate in the future.

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Section: Observational Evidence Of Storm Surge Changecontrasting

confidence: 48%

Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan

Islam¹,

Satoh²,

Sawada³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…This coincides with the 10‐5 years long period of 7 cm RSL drop recorded by corals microatolls between 1950 and 1960‐968 (Figure ). As well, a decadal regional sea‐level drop is found at the same time in tide gauge records from Japan mainland (Sasaki et al, ) that would reflect multidecadal sea‐level oscillations driven by climate variability. Indeed, the work of Meyssignac et al () highlighted that regional sea‐level trend patterns are not long‐lived features.…”

Section: Rsl Changes Pattern At Regional Scalementioning

confidence: 78%

Relative Sea‐Level Changes Over the Past Centuries in the Central Ryukyu Arc Inferred From Coral Microatolls

et al. 2020

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This study focuses on Okinawa and Yoron islands, in order to better understand tectonics in the Ryukyu Arc related to the subduction zone. We used coral microatolls—known for their centimetric accuracy in the record of relative sea‐level (RSL) changes—to reconstruct RSL changes over the last century from living microatolls. A fossil microatoll in Yoron was used to discuss possible RSL changes beyond the last century. The signal consists of emergence whose rate varies through time, interrupted by decadal to multidecadal periods of sudden and/or gradual submergence and by interannual sea‐level falls. Comparison with other existing RSL records in the arc highlights RSL variability along the arc. This pattern contrasts with the homogeneous and linear absolute regional sea‐level rise, implying that this latter signal cannot fully explain our observations and that an additional process is required. We suggest the subduction zone as a possible source for generating centimetric scale RSL changes observed in coral microatolls. We tested how the Ryukyu megathrust could explain our observations with elastic dislocation modeling. The emergence trend could be explained by interseismic loading on the plate interface with a minimum coupling rate of 25%, which is higher than previous estimates based on short instrumental records. As for the submergence events that occurred regularly in the coral record, we show that they could be explained by slow slip events on the shallower part of the megathrust or in the transition zone. Such process could accommodate a significant part of the total convergence.

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“…Sasaki et al (2014) stress the importance of understanding the dynamical reasons for such variability in order to reliably predict future sea level changes. In a later modelling study of Japan sea level variability over 1906, Sasaki et al (2017 further pointed to the need to understand natural variability on decadal timescales for understanding future regional sea level change.…”

Section: (A) (B)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast

et al. 2019

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We review the characteristics of sea level variability at the coast focussing on how it differs from the variability in the nearby deep ocean. Sea level variability occurs on all timescales, with processes at higher frequencies tending to have a larger magnitude at the coast due to resonance and other dynamics. In the case of some processes, such as the tides, the presence of the coast and the shallow waters of the shelves results in the processes being considerably more complex than offshore. However, 'coastal variability' should not always be considered as 'short spatial scale variability' but can be the result of signals transmitted along the coast from 1000s km away. Fortunately, thanks to tide gauges being necessarily located at the coast, many aspects of coastal sea level variability can be claimed to be better understood than those in the deep ocean. Nevertheless, certain aspects of coastal variability remain under-researched, including how changes in some processes (e.g., wave setup, river runoff) may have contributed to the historical mean sea level records obtained from tide gauges which are now used routinely in large-scale climate research.

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Sea Level Variability around Japan during the Twentieth Century Simulated by a Regional Ocean Model

Cited by 19 publications

References 49 publications

Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan

Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan

Relative Sea‐Level Changes Over the Past Centuries in the Central Ryukyu Arc Inferred From Coral Microatolls

Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast

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