SEAMHCRD deterministic compartmental model based on clinical stages of infection for COVID-19 pandemic in Sultanate of Oman

Abstract

The present novel corona virus (COVID-19) infection has engendered a worldwide crisis across the world in an enormous scale within a very short period. The effective solution for this pandemic is to recognize the nature and spread of the disease so that appropriate policies can be framed. Mathematical modelling is always at the forefront to understand and provide an adequate description about the transmission of any disease. In this research work, we have formulated a deterministic compartmental model (SEAMHCRD) including various stages of infection, such as Mild, Moderate, Severe and Critical to study the spreading of COVID-19 and estimated the model parameters by fitting the model with the reported data of ongoing pandemic in Oman. The steady state, stability and final pandemic size of the model has been proved mathematically. The various transmission as well as transition parameters are estimated during the period from June 8th - July 30th, 2020. Based on the current estimated parameters, the pandemic size is also predicted for another 100 days. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key model parameters, and corresponding basic reproduction number has been computed using Next Generation Matrix (NGM) method. As the value of basic reproduction number (R0) is 0.9761 during the period from June 8th - July 30th, 2020, it is an indication for the policy makers to adopt appropriate remedial measures like social distancing and contact tracing to reduce the value of R0 to control the spread of the disease.

Basic reproduction number projection for novel pandemics and variants. Ancestral SARS-CoV2 R0 projection

“…Susceptible implies capable of contracting a pathogen, infected implies capable of replicating and spreading the pathogen and removed refers to either recovery (expulsion of the pathogen and immunity) or death. Additional compartments [1, 49] and stratified or heterogenous populations [50–53] result in more sophisticated deterministic, compartment models.…”

A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID‐19 at global‐level

“…In 2021, some new deterministic and stochastic models have been proposed. Regarding the deterministic ones (Carcione et al., 2020; Kumar et al., 2021; Lawal & Vincent, 2021; Mandal et al., 2021; Piccirillo, 2021; Varghese et al., 2021), the main difference, when compared to past studies (Choi & Ki, 2020; Ferguson, Laydon et al., 2020; Ferguson, Walker et al., 2020; Khan & Atangana, 2020; T. M. Chen et al., 2020; Yang et al., 2021), is the compartmental susceptible–exposed–infective–recovered (SEIR) approach (for more details see Bartlett, 1957). Besides being deterministic, these are not age‐structured, as we propose here.…”