Searching for Patterns in Random Sequences.

Wolford, George; Newman, Sarah; Miller, Michael B.; Wig, Gagan S.

doi:10.1037/h0087446

Cited by 75 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Although any pattern search strategy is by definition misapplied for random data, such search strategies can be cognitively demanding. Ironically, then, if pattern search is impeded by distraction or by participants' low short-term memory capacity, more maximizing behavior can be observed, leading to higher success (Gaissmaier et al 2006;Wolford et al 2004).…”

Section: Probability Matching and Its Relation To Betting On Illusorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers

et al. 2015

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Why do people gamble? A large body of research suggests that cognitive distortions play an important role in pathological gambling. Many of these distortions are specific cases of a more general misperception of randomness, specifically of an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences. In this article, we provide further evidence for the assumption that gamblers are particularly prone to perceiving illusory patterns. In particular, we compared habitual gamblers to a matched sample of community members with regard to how much they exhibit the choice anomaly 'probability matching'. Probability matching describes the tendency to match response proportions to outcome probabilities when predicting binary outcomes. It leads to a lower expected accuracy than the maximizing strategy of predicting the most likely event on each trial. Previous research has shown that an illusory perception of patterns in random sequences fuels probability matching. So does impulsivity, which is also reported to be higher in gamblers. We therefore hypothesized that gamblers will exhibit more probability matching than nongamblers, which was confirmed in a controlled laboratory experiment. Additionally, gamblers scored much lower than community members on the cognitive reflection task, which indicates higher impulsivity. This difference could account for the difference in probability matching between the samples. These results suggest that gamblers are more willing to bet impulsively on perceived illusory patterns.

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Section: Probability Matching and Its Relation To Betting On Illusorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers

et al. 2015

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“…Research demonstrates that individuals initially prefer, or are biased towards, using these complex strategies when they have the attentional resources to do so (DeCaro & Beilock, 2010;Schelble, Therriault, & Miller, 2012). For example, higher WMC individuals tend to look for patterns in random sequences (Wolford, Newman, Miller, & Wig, 2004), and continue to use complex, time-consuming algorithmic problem-solving approaches when simpler, more efficient strategies are available (Beilock & DeCaro, 2007;DeCaro, Thomas, & Beilock, 2008). Thus, attentional control not only enables but may also promote a tendency to implement complex problem-solving approaches-even if a controlled task approach is unnecessary or suboptimal (e.g., Gaissmaier, Schooler, & Rieskamp, 2006).…”

Section: Executive Attention and Insightmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enclothed Cognition and Controlled Attention during Insight Problem-Solving

Stockum¹,

DeCaro

2014

The Journal of Problem Solving

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Individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) increase the ability and tendency to devote greater attentional control to a task-improving performance on a wide range of skills. In addition, recent research on enclothed cognition demonstrates that the situational influence of wearing a white lab coat increases controlled attention, due to the symbolic meaning and physical experience of wearing the coat. We examined whether these positive influences on attentional control lead to negative performance outcomes on insight problem-solving, a task thought to rely on associative processes that operate largely outside of explicit attentional control. Participants completed matchstick arithmetic problems while either wearing a white lab coat or in a no-coat control condition. Higher WMC was associated with lower insight problem-solving accuracy in the no-coat condition. In the coat condition, the insight problem-solving accuracy of lower WMC individuals dropped to the level of those higher in WMC. These results indicate that wearing a white lab coat led individuals to increase attentional control towards problem solving, hindering even lower WMC individuals from engaging in more diffuse, associative problem-solving processes, at which they otherwise excel. Trait and state factors known to increase controlled attention and improve performance on more attention-demanding tasks interact to hinder insight problem-solving.

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“…By this account, probability matching represents an ecologically rational response associated with the search for patterns. Wolford et al (2004) argued that the assumption that people search for patterns in outcome sequences is in line with the reduced probability matching rates observed when cognitive resources are taxed. That is, occupying the cognitive resources needed for vigilant pattern search would undercut such normally occurring search behavior, and thus reduce probability matching.…”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Surprisingly, under some conditions, people maximize more (and match less) when the overall task difficulty is increased, for example, by the introduction of a concurrent verbal memory task that competes for cognitive resources (Wolford, Newman, Miller, & Wig, 2004). Yet this finding is surprising only if one assumes that people really believe the structure of the sequential choice task to be simple and the outcome sequence to be random.…”

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confidence: 99%

Taking the easy way out? Increasing implementation effort reduces probability maximizing under cognitive load

Schulze

Newell

2016

Mem Cogn

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Cognitive load has previously been found to have a positive effect on strategy selection in repeated risky choice. Specifically, whereas inferior probability matching often prevails under single-task conditions, optimal probability maximizing sometimes dominates when a concurrent task competes for cognitive resources. We examined the extent to which this seemingly beneficial effect of increased task demands hinges on the effort required to implement each of the choice strategies. Probability maximizing typically involves a simple repeated response to a single option, whereas probability matching requires choice proportions to be tracked carefully throughout a sequential choice task. Here, we flipped this pattern by introducing a manipulation that made the implementation of maximizing more taxing and, at the same time, allowed decision makers to probability match via a simple repeated response to a single option. The results from two experiments showed that increasing the implementation effort of probability maximizing resulted in decreased adoption rates of this strategy. This was the case both when decision makers simultaneously learned about the outcome probabilities and responded to a dual task (Exp. 1) and when these two aspects were procedurally separated in two distinct stages (Exp. 2). We conclude that the effort involved in implementing a choice strategy is a key factor in shaping repeated choice under uncertainty. Moreover, highlighting the importance of implementation effort casts new light on the sometimes surprising and inconsistent effects of cognitive load that have previously been reported in the literature.

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Searching for Patterns in Random Sequences.

Cited by 75 publications

References 20 publications

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers

Betting on Illusory Patterns: Probability Matching in Habitual Gamblers

Enclothed Cognition and Controlled Attention during Insight Problem-Solving

Taking the easy way out? Increasing implementation effort reduces probability maximizing under cognitive load

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