Coral cover surveys corroborate 1 predictions on reef adaptive 2 potential to thermal stress 3 4 5 Abstract 16 17As anomalous heat waves are causing the widespread decline of coral reefs worldwide, there 18 heat stress was lower at reefs predicted with high probability of adaptation and inbound 30 connectivity. Last, we discussed how these indicators can be used to inform local conservation 31 strategies and preserve the adaptive potential of New Caledonian reefs. 32Recent research reported reefs that rebounded from repeated heat stress and showed an 43 increased thermal resistance 7-11 . Adaptation of corals against heat stress might explain such 44 observations 12,13 . Under this view, identifying adapted coral populations is of paramount 45 importance, as conservation strategies might be established to protect reefs hosting these 46 corals from local stressors (e.g. via marine protected areas, MPAs) 14 . Furthermore, adapted 47 interest, the predisposition in sending (outbound connectivity) and receiving (inbound 65 connectivity) propagules to/from neighboring reefs 17 . 66 In this study, we predicted spatial patterns of heat stress adaptation and connectivity for over 67 1000 km of coral reefs of New Caledonia, in the Southern Pacific (Fig. 1). The study area 68 encompassed the barrier reef surrounding Grande Terre, the main islands of the Archipelago, 69 as well as the intermediary and fringing enclosed in the lagoon. We also considered reefs 70 surrounding the Loyalty Islands (Ouvéa, Lifou and Maré) and the Astrolabe (east of Grande 71Terre) and those in the Entrecasteaux and Petri atolls (north of Grande Terre). We first used 72 remote sensing data to (1) evaluate the thermal variability of the study area and (2) estimate 73 patterns of sea current connectivity between reefs. Next, we employed genomic data from a 74 seascape genomics study on three coral species of the region 23 in order to (1) compute the 75 probability of adaptation to heat stress across the whole region, and (2) verify whether 76 predicted reef connectivity matched genetic correlation between corals. Last, we compared 77 our predictions with field surveys of living coral cover recorded by the New Caledonian 78 observational network of coral reef (RORC; Job, 2018). Our results suggest that negative 79 effects of recent heat stress on coral cover are mitigated at reefs predicted with high 80 probability of heat stress adaptation and inbound connectivity. We then discuss the 81 conservation status of reefs around New Caledonia, and assess how conservation indices of 82 probability of adaptation and connectivity can be used to protect the adaptive potential of 83 corals of the region. 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 (average BAF: 0.16±0.04) than in those on the eastern coast (0.08±0.03). Reefs in Lifou, Maré 106 and Isle of Pines displayed BAFoverall values comparable to those on the eastern coast of 107 Grande Terre (0.09±0.03, 0.10±0.02 and 0.11±0.01, respectively), while in Ouvéa and 108 Entrecasteaux reefs the BAFoverall values...