Seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclones and their linkage with Arctic sea ice and atmospheric teleconnections

Wei, Lixin; Qin, Ting; Cheng, Li

doi:10.1007/s13131-017-1117-9

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…There is some discussion of the fact that the number of cyclones reaching the Arctic is on the increase. Despite the fact that the number of cyclones in the Arctic shows considerable interannual and seasonal variability, Wei, Qin, and Li () detected no significant linear trend. However, Zahn, Akperov, Rinke, Feser, and Mokhov () reported an increase in the number of cyclones in summer (significant at the 95% confidence level using a one‐sided Student's t ‐test).…”

Section: Drivers Of Observed Changes In Moisture Transport To the Arcmentioning

confidence: 93%

Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

Gimeno

Vázquez

Eiras‐Barca

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

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This article contains a review of the transport of moisture to the Arctic and its effect on Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE). The review includes a synthesis of our knowledge regarding the main sources supplying moisture to the Arctic, the changes experienced over the last few decades due to variations in the transport of moisture, the factors that control interannual variability, and the inherent contrast in the mechanisms related to the effect of changes in moisture transport on SIE in the Arctic. We note that the precise identification of the moisture sources for the Arctic depends both on the definition of the Arctic region itself and on the approach used to identify the sources, with the remote regions over the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans being universally important, as are some continental areas over Siberia and North America. This review also reaffirms the absence of any clear agreement regarding the trends in atmospheric moisture transport to the Arctic, and highlights discrepancies between different data sets and approaches in the quantification of moisture transport, implying that its long‐term impact on the intensification of the hydrological cycle in the Arctic remains unclear. We confirm the influence of the major modes of climate variability, planetary circulation patterns, and the changes in cyclonic activity in the variability of moisture transport to the Arctic. We reaffirm that the effect of moisture transport on the Arctic SIE through changes in humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation over the Arctic is a complex scientific problem that requires further detailed study over the decades to come, and we propose some important challenges for future research. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

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Section: Drivers Of Observed Changes In Moisture Transport To the Arcmentioning

confidence: 93%

Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

Gimeno

Vázquez

Eiras‐Barca

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

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“…They showed, however, that the magnitudes of trends differed in strength between reanalyses. When summed over the entire Arctic basin, the number of Arctic cyclones exhibits no significant linear trend in any season [ 61 , 62 ]. Given the opposing regional trends mentioned above, this finding is perhaps not surprising.…”

Section: The Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Arctic cyclone characteristics are correlated with key large-scale atmospheric indices, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NAM; however, these associations vary with season and none alone sufficiently explains cyclone variability or trends [ 58 , 61 ]. The role that decreasing Arctic ice may be playing in these cyclone trends is a matter of considerable debate.…”

Section: The Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation

Screen

Bracegirdle

Simmonds

2018

Curr Clim Change Rep

150

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Purpose of ReviewDynamic manifestations of climate change, i.e. those related to circulation, are less well understood than are thermodynamic, or temperature-related aspects. However, this knowledge gap is narrowing. We review recent progress in understanding the causes of observed changes in polar tropospheric and stratospheric circulation, and in interpreting climate model projections of their future changes.Recent FindingsTrends in the annular modes reflect the influences of multiple drivers. In the Northern Hemisphere, there appears to be a “tug-of-war” between the opposing effects of Arctic near-surface warming and tropical upper tropospheric warming, two predominant features of the atmospheric response to increasing greenhouse gases. Future trends in the Southern Hemisphere largely depend on the competing effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases.SummaryHuman influence on the Antarctic circulation is detectable in the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the poleward shift of the tropospheric westerly winds. Observed Arctic circulation changes cannot be confidently separated from internal atmospheric variability.

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“…Inoue et al (2012) showed that the sea ice variability in the Barents Sea very likely controls the cyclone tracks in that region through changes in baroclinicity. A statistical connection between Arctic sea ice changes and cyclone activity over the Arctic Ocean has been reported (Koyama et al 2017, Wei et al 2017. Koyama et al (2017) found that an increase in moisture availability and regional baroclinicity as well as changes in vertical stability due to reduced sea ice in September favor cyclogenesis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Atlantic water inflow on winter cyclone activity in the Barents Sea: insights from coupled regional climate model simulations

Akperov

Семенов

Мохов

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The impact of the Atlantic water inflow (AW inflow) into the Barents Sea on the regional cyclone activity in winter is analyzed in 10 ensemble simulations with the coupled Arctic atmosphere-oceansea icemodel HIRHAM-NAOSIM for the 1979-2016 period. The model shows a statistically robust connection between AW inflow and climate variability in the Barents Sea. The analysis reveals that anomalously high AW inflow leads to changes in static stability and wind shear in the lower troposphere, and thus favorable conditions for cyclogenesis in the Barents/Kara Seas. The frequency of occurrence of cyclones, but particularly of intense cyclones, is increased over the Barents Sea. Furthermore, the cyclones in the Barents Sea become larger (increased radius) and stronger (increased intensity) in response to an increased AW inflow into the Barents Sea, compared to years of anomalously low AW inflow.

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Seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclones and their linkage with Arctic sea ice and atmospheric teleconnections

Cited by 17 publications

References 23 publications

Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation

Impact of Atlantic water inflow on winter cyclone activity in the Barents Sea: insights from coupled regional climate model simulations

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