Avian influenza A, a highly pathogenic avian influenza, is a lethal infection in certain
species of wild birds, including some endangered species. Raptors are susceptible to avian
influenza, and spatial risk assessment of such species may be valuable for conservation
planning. We used the maximum entropy approach to generate potential distribution models
of three raptor species from presence-only data for the mountain hawk-eagle
Nisaetus nipalensis, northern goshawk Accipiter
gentilis and peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus, surveyed
during the winter from 1996 to 2001. These potential distribution maps for raptors were
superimposed on avian influenza A risk maps of Japan, created from data on incidence of
the virus in wild birds throughout Japan from October 2010 to March 2011. The avian
influenza A risk map for the mountain hawk-eagle showed that most regions of Japan had a
low risk for avian influenza A. In contrast, the maps for the northern goshawk and
peregrine falcon showed that their high-risk areas were distributed on the plains along
the Sea of Japan and Pacific coast. We recommend enhanced surveillance for each raptor
species in high-risk areas and immediate establishment of inspection systems. At the same
time, ecological risk assessments that determine factors, such as the composition of prey
species, and differential sensitivity of avian influenza A virus between bird species
should provide multifaceted insights into the total risk assessment of endangered
species.