Seasonal characteristics of the large-scale moisture flux transport over the Arabian Peninsula

Athar, H.; Ammar, K.

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1437-7

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 45 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Based on the above discussion, we anticipate that considering NAO and ENSO as leading patterns would be enough to account for most of the variability over MENA region in the winter season. Similarly ENSO and ISM appear to have significant contribution in summer season over MENA (Abualnaja et al, ; Almazroui et al, ; Athar, ; Athar & Ammar, ). The ISM plays a significant role in strengthening of the coastal precipitation both in West Africa and over the Horn of Africa to the east by affecting the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ; i.e., the upward branch of Hadley circulation) and the Somali jet.…”

Section: Model Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 96%

“…It has been discussed in several studies that the NAO is one of the primary modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector that largely impacts the climate of Europe and MENA (Abualnaja et al, ; Athar, ; Barlow et al, ; Hurrell, ; Yu & Zhou, ). ENSO and ISM (or simply Indian monsoon) have also been reported as important modes of variability that impact MENA climate (Abualnaja et al, ; Athar, ; Athar & Ammar, ; Chakraborty et al, ; Wanner et al, ). Wanner et al () and Athar () have shown that both the NAO and ENSO are the prominent modes of variabilities that are essential to be considered while discussing Northern Hemisphere winter climate, especially the climate of AP region.…”

Section: Model Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

Dogar¹,

Sato

2018

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), primarily the Arabian Peninsula (AP), is a region where the rate of mean surface temperature rise per decade is among the highest globally known during the recent past. Moreover, MENA regional climate is very sensitive to internal and external climate drivers. Therefore, it is of significant practical importance to analyze MENA sensitivity to climate trends as well as leading variability modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Using multiple regression technique on observations and the high-resolution atmospheric model output, this study investigates the role of climate trends and leading circulation modes such as NAO, ENSO, and ISM in inducing temperature and precipitation variability in MENA region for the period 1979-2008. Our results show substantial regional temperature and precipitation responses of ENSO, NAO, and ISM over MENA. Both the model and the observations indicate that positive phase of NAO and ENSO significantly cools central parts of MENA, in particular, the AP in winter. However, in boreal summer, the warm ENSO phase produces significant warming and drying over the tropical region. The strengthening (weakening) of ISM suggests cooling (warming) and wetting (drying) over MENA rain-belt region. Moreover, ISM induces a dipole precipitation structure over the tropics caused by Intertropical Convergence Zone shift and associated cloud distribution. High-resolution atmospheric model slightly underestimates NAO and ENSO winter cooling over the AP; however, overall patterns are well reproduced. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability.

show abstract

Section: Model Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Model Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

Dogar¹,

Sato

2018

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…27 However, the low-level divergent anomalies due to the descending Hadley cell and the existence of the Somali Jet over the southern peninsula tend to suppress the rainfall in the region. 28 Most studies are conducted using observational datasets, and the details of the mechanism connecting summertime peninsula rainfall with ENSO are not explored. The current study investigates the summer rainfall mechanism in relationship with ENSO by using a 15-member ensemble of simulations with the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) AGCM 29 (see Methods).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is considered to be responsible for rainfall predictability in many regions. Some of its regional teleconnections, such as over the Arabian Peninsula in boreal summer (June-August) season, are not well studied. Therefore, in this paper, the relationship between the summer seasonal mean rainfall and ENSO is analyzed with the aid of a 15-member ensemble of simulations using the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) for the period 1981-2015. The southwestern peninsula rainfall is linked to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the central-eastern pacific region. This relationship is established through an atmospheric teleconnection which shows upper-level convergence anomalies over the southern Arabian Peninsula compensating the central-eastern Pacific upper-level divergence anomalies for the warm ENSO phase, and vice-versa for the cold Phase. The upper-level convergence over the southern Arabian Peninsula leads to sinking motion, low-level divergence and consequently to reduced rainfall in the warm phase, while reverse happens in the cold phase. The correlation coefficient between the observed area-averged Niño3.4 index and a Southwestern Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Index (SARI) is −0.43 (statistically significant at 95%). Overall, model shows a potential predictability (PP) of 0.53 for the SARI region. Predictability during El Niño is higher than during La Niña events. This is not only because of a stronger signal, but also noise reduction contributes to the increase of PP in El Niño compared to that of La Niña years.

show abstract

“…where CC is the coefficient of the Spearman correlation and d i is the difference in rank between the paired values. Furthermore, characteristics of spatial distribution of moisture transport were studied, by computing the horizontal divergence of vertically integrated moisture flux between 1,000 and 850 hPa using methods described in previous studies (Athar and Ammar, 2016). The spatial moisture transport distribution is studied for positive and negative seasonal DTR years of the region, following You et al (2016).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed diurnal temperature range variations and its association with observed cloud cover in northern Pakistan

Ahmad

Athar

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Spatio‐temporal variability in the observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the recent 30‐year period (1986–2015) is examined from a total of 18 weather stations in Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya region of northern Pakistan (HKNP). The daily maximum and minimum temperature data are used to compute the regional DTR, whereas observed total cloud cover (TCC) is used to assess its possible relationship with regional DTR, both on seasonal and annual basis. The regional mean DTR is 13.27 °C on annual basis, with a maximum in autumn (14.63 °C) and minimum in winter (11.81 °C). On annual basis, the regional DTR has increased significantly at a rate of .34 °C/decade, during the 30‐year study period at p ≤ .05, based on Mann–Kendall test. On seasonal basis, the DTR displays an increasing trend in all four seasons with largest significant increase in the winter season at a rate of .32 °C/decade. The DTR is positively correlated with maximum temperature of the region on seasonal and annual basis. Strong negative correlation is found between the DTR and observed TCC in all seasons, indicating that variability in TCC has an impact on the variation of DTR in this region. The statistically significant increasing DTR trend along with statistically significant decreasing trend of TCC in spring season suggests an early melt of snow and ice covers in the region, consequently changing the hydrological cycle of the region that demands a better water resource management in the HKNP.

show abstract

Seasonal characteristics of the large-scale moisture flux transport over the Arabian Peninsula

Cited by 15 publications

References 45 publications

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

Observed diurnal temperature range variations and its association with observed cloud cover in northern Pakistan

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About