Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill Assessment for the Management of Water Resources in a Run of River Hydropower System in the Poqueira River (Southern Spain)

Abstract

Run of river (RoR) hydropower systems, despite being one of the most cost-effective and environmentally benign energy technologies, have the disadvantage that production is not constant because it is subject to a high variability in precipitation and snow cover. In addition, the management of RoR plants has to comply with some particular operating conditions, but also with some environmental flow requirements. This work presents the assessment of the main inputs included in a climate service, historical local data and the seasonal forecast of water inflow to RoR plants, which are used to predict the operability and the expected energy production. The analysis is presented through the application in a pilot RoR system located in the south of Spain, in a semi-arid Mediterranean area impacted by snow, where seasonal forecasting is especially challenging. The results show the high interannual variability of the operation in this kind of facilities. The outcomes indicate that seasonal climate forecast information would improve the prediction of observed river streamflow by 7.4% in reliability and 3.2% in sharpness compared to the current operational forecast based on historical data. The climate forecasts thus provide valuable information for the exploitation of available water resources, which generates a significant value for the operation of the plant and the energy production market.

Evaluation of Earth Observations and In Situ Data Assimilation for Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting

“…In particular, systems with similar climatological and hydrological conditions over the globe can be of high relevance to the energy sector. Hence the results presented here can guide decision making in hydropower management and risk reduction (Contreras et al, 2020;Wörman et al, 2020) by pointing out the seasons and lead times for which implementing ESP and/or GCM-MF hydrological forecasts with and without data assimilation can be strategic.…”

“…Current ensembles are commonly obtained by applying different perturbations to the control (unperturbed) forecast, and should preferably be based on multiple models (Sahai et al., 2021). Ensemble forecasting is used to predict flooding (Alfieri et al., 2014; Ramos et al., 2007), droughts (Colossi & Tucci, 2020); and in hydro‐climate services, for example, for water resources management applications (Macian‐Sorribes et al., 2020; Pechlivanidis et al., 2020), agriculture (Villani et al., 2021) and hydropower (Contreras et al., 2020).…”

Evaluating Topographic Effects on Kilometer-Scale Satellite Downward Shortwave Radiation Products: A Case Study in Mid-Latitude Mountains

“…Sierra Nevada has a fragile environment and has undergone substantial changes over the years [56]. Thus, it has been a scientific research hotspot, including studies focused on snow dynamics [57,58], hydrology [59,60], climate [61], ecosystems [62], and solar radiation [41]. Meanwhile, Sierra Nevada was internationally recognized as a biosphere reserve (2003), a national park (1999), a special area of conservation (2012), and an important observatory for global change.…”

Urban Water Management: A Pragmatic Approach

“…This special issue consists of 10 papers that cover a wide range of research topics related to urban water systems. The specific topics include (Figure 1): operating procedure [4], system failure [5,6], water quality [7][8][9], capacity [10], demand [11,12], and energy and climate [13].…”

“…The effect of the variability in precipitation and snow cover on the energy production of river hydropower systems is examined in the study by Contreras et al [13]. The results of the analysis executed for a pilot system located in a Spanish semi-arid Mediterranean area, where seasonal forecasting is quite challenging, highlight the importance of the seasonal climate forecast information.…”