Seasonal Cycles in Crime, and Their Variability

McDowall, David; Loftin, Colin; Pate, Matthew

doi:10.1007/s10940-011-9145-7

Cited by 156 publications

(145 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…This is problematic because crime frequency varies over the year, as noted especially in research on the seasonality of crime (e.g. Hipp et al 2004;McDowall et al 2012), leading in turn to workload variation. An agency's number of active crime cases is also constantly changing as cases are cleared by arrest or exceptional means, or as older uncleared cases are no longer actively investigated.…”

Section: Police Workload and Clearancementioning

confidence: 99%

Crime Clearance and Temporal Variation in Police Investigative Workload: Evidence from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) Data

Roberts

2015

J Quant Criminol

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Objectives Police workload's relationship with crime clearance has been studied widely.In the challenging environment now facing police, even small and possibly temporary changes in investigative workload could harm clearance. However existing workloadclearance research either used only a yearly average that obscures temporal variability in caseload, or explored proxy rather than direct measures of workload's short-term variation. Our improved workload measures capture caseload's daily changes as crimes are reported, cleared, or remain uncleared but reach the end of active investigation. We examine relationships between clearance and both long-and short-term variability in workload.Methods Using NIBRS and LEMAS data, we calculated between-agency (typical or longterm) and time-varying, within-agency (daily fluctuating or short-term) workload measures. We used these and other agency/jurisdiction-and incident-level variables in multi-level survival analysis of clearance by arrest for serious violent incidents from 2007 NIBRS.Results Both workload measures were significantly and negatively related to the clearance hazard rate; higher long-and short-term workloads are associated with reduced chance of a case being cleared. The estimated relationship between longterm workload and clearance became progressively stronger (more negative) as the crime incident's legal seriousness decreased. However, estimates indicated greater sensitivity of the clearance hazard to short-term workload fluctuations for more serious crimes, though the workloadclearance relationship remained negative for all crime types.

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Section: Police Workload and Clearancementioning

confidence: 99%

Crime Clearance and Temporal Variation in Police Investigative Workload: Evidence from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) Data

Roberts

2015

J Quant Criminol

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“…This result so consistently appears across different time periods and geographical units that Rock, Judd, and Hallmayer (2008) suggest it is true universally. A few examples of analyses that find such a pattern are Block (1984); Cohen (1941); Cohn and Rotton (1997); Deutsch (1978); Dodge (1988); Harries and Stadler (1989); Hird and Ruparel (2007); McDowall, Loftin, and Pate (2012); Michael and Zumpe (1983); and Rock et al (2008).…”

Section: Findings On Seasonality In Homicide and Assaultmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some past studies have been successful in detecting seasonality in homicide data, but by far the more frequent conclusion is that the crime contains no clear annual pattern. Studies that report seasonal cycles in homicide include, among others, Hakko (2000); McDowall et al (2012); Rock, Greenberg, and Hallmayer (2003); Tennenbaum and Fink (1994); and Warren, Smith, and Tyler (1983). Some of the more numerous studies that find no homicide seasonality are Abel, Strasburger, and Zeidenberg (1985); Block (1984Block ( , 1987; Brearley (1932); Cheatwood (1988); Deutsch (1978); Harries (1989); Landau and Fridman (1993); Michael and Zumpe (1983); Rock et al (2008); Schmid (1926); and Wolfgang (1958).…”

Section: Findings On Seasonality In Homicide and Assaultmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Variation in Homicide and Assault Across Large U.S. Cities

McDowall

Curtis

2014

Homicide Studies

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Although most crimes follow seasonal cycles, homicide is an apparent exception. The absence of homicide seasonality is surprising given that assault, a closely related offense, has an obvious annual pattern. Focusing on large U.S. cities, this article reevaluates seasonality in homicide rates using data with more extensive spatial and areal dimensions than in previous research. Panel decompositions reveal seasonal cycles in both homicide and assault rates. Seasonality stands out more clearly in assault, however, and the patterns differ somewhat in their details. The findings support the idea that assault and homicide have similar seasonal fluctuations, but they also suggest that the crimes are more distinct than criminologists often believe.

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“…Proposed routine activity theory explanations focus on spatio-temporal variations in discretionary activities around specific land use types (McDowall et al, 2012). Discretionary routine activities are pursued by choice and vary in both location and temporal frequency, contrasting with obligatory routine activities that are consistent in location and frequency (LeBeau, 1994;Tompson and Bowers, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%