Seasonal Environmental Characteristics for the Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Indian Ocean during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Field Experiment

Tsuboi, Aya; Takemi, Tetsuya; Yoneyama, Kunio

doi:10.3390/atmos7050066

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The present study hypothesized that water-vapor content distribution can affect TC tracks, and examined the hypothesis through analyzing the Severe Typhoon Hato (2017) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (Skamarock et al 2008). Our previous study showed that the intensification of Hato was significantly affected by environmental water vapor (Wu et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Xu et al (2013) identified that TCs, particularly some severe ones, exhibited the trend of making landfalls toward warmer land in China during 1960-2009 because a warmer surface provides moisture and energy to TCs. TCs typically intensify when they pass over warmer surface areas or encounter favorable environmental conditions in the lower atmosphere (Wang et al 2001;Miglietta et al 2011;Rai and Pattnaik 2018), particularly higher water-vapor content (WVC) Krall and Cottom 2012;Tsuboi et al 2016;Khain et al 2016). Herbener et al (2014) reported that moist aerosols can initiate interactions between cloud microphysics and storm dynamics via latent heat release, thus leading to TC intensification.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of water vapor distribution on the simulated track of Typhoon Hato (2017)

et al. 2021

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Predicting tropical cyclone (TCs) tracks is a primary concern in TC forecasting. Some TCs appear to move in a direction favorable for their development, beyond the influence of the steering flow. Thus, we hypothesize that TCs move toward regions with high water-vapor content in the lower atmosphere. In this study, four numerical experiments, including a control experiment and three sensitivity experiments, were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, to analyze the relationship between water vapor distribution and the track of Severe Typhoon Hato (2017). Observations validated the features reproduced in the control experiment. The sensitivity experiments were conducted to explore variations in the TC track under different water vapor environments. Results indicate that the horizontal distribution of water-vapor content exerted a greater impact on the TC track than the steering flow when both factors were significant. Further analysis revealed that the TC’s movement vector was between the direction of the steering flow and the direction toward the peak of vorticity increasing area. The peaks of vorticity increasing area were close to the peaks of water vapor increasing area, which also proved the effect of water vapor distribution on the TC track. These results are expected to improve TC track analysis and forecasting.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of water vapor distribution on the simulated track of Typhoon Hato (2017)

et al. 2021

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“…8,18,21 A significant focus has been placed on determining factors influencing the inter-annual variability, both in the number of storms and their geographic location within the ocean basin, highlighting the significant role of El Niño Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation. 8,[19][20][21][22] Because of the socio-economic vulnerability within the region, research on South Indian Ocean tropical cyclones has included the considerable infrastructural and economic costs associated with storm damage. 18,23,24 This study reflects on the emergence of tropical cyclones in the IBTrACS record for the South Indian Ocean in 1994, and the changing dynamics of these storms over the past two decades, including changes in the number of CAT5 storms, the latitudinal positions of the storms, and the underlying sea surface temperatures as drivers of cyclogenesis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent emergence of CAT5 tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean

Fitchett¹

2018

S. Afr. J. Sci.

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The IBTrACS global best track data set endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization provides a valuable global record of tropical cyclone genesis, track and intensity, and spans 1842 to the present. The record is significantly more robust from the late 1970s onwards, as it is supported by satellite imagery. These records indicate that the first tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean to intensify to CAT5 status did so in 1994. This date is significantly later than the first CAT5 storms recorded in the IBTrACS database for the Atlantic Ocean (1924) and the North Pacific (1951) recorded from ship records, and half a decade later than those of the North Indian Ocean (1989) and South Pacific (1988), captured from satellite imagery. Following this late emergence, in the period 1990–2000, eight CAT5 tropical cyclones were recorded for the South Indian Ocean. A further four have been recorded for the period 2010–2015. This recent emergence of tropical cyclones attaining category five intensity in the South Indian Ocean is of significance for the forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall and the anticipation of storm damage for the developing economies that characterise the region. Although an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is frequently projected under global climate change scenarios, the dynamics for the South Indian Ocean have remained poorly understood. Notable are early results indicating an increased frequency and poleward migration of these CAT5 storms, concurrent with a poleward migration in the position of the 26.5 °C, 28 °C and 29 °C sea surface temperature isotherms in the South Indian Ocean. Significance: Category 5 tropical cyclones, the strongest category of storms, have only recently emerged in the South Indian Ocean. Since 1989, their frequency of occurrence has increased. This increase poses a heightened risk of storm damage for the South Indian Ocean Island States and the countries of the southern African subcontinent as a result of the strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges associated with these storms, and the large radial extent at category 5 strength.

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“…MJO is a large-scale cluster of convective clouds in the tropics Julian, 1971, 1972;Zhang, 2005) and sometimes affects the generation and evolution of tropical cyclones by changing the atmospheric conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis (Liebmann et al, 1994;Bessafi and Wheeler, 2006;Kim et al, 2008;Camargo et al, 2009;Chand and Walsh, 2010;Kikuchi and Wang, 2010;Huang et al, 2011;Yanase et al, 2012;Klotzbach and Blake, 2013;Klotzbach, 2014;Tsuboi and Takemi, 2014). With the use of an index that describes the potential for tropical cyclogenesis (Murakami et al, 2011), it was found that the increase in humidity is an important condition favorable for the generation of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean during the active periods of MJO (Tsuboi and Takemi, 2004;Tsuboi et al, 2016). Klotzbach and Blake (2013) indicated that during the convectively active phase of the MJO over the eastern and central tropical Pacific the north-central Pacific tends to have more TCs and the convectively active phase of MJO is responsible for north-central Pacific TCs that experience rapid intensification.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution and intensification of Cyclone Pam (2015) and resulting strong winds over the southern Pacific islands

Takemi

2018

Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics

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Cyclone Pam (2015), a category-5 storm, in the southern Pacific in March 2015 caused severe damages over the islands states in the southern Pacific. Cyclone Pam was originated from an active convective region in the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and evolved from convective clouds into a tropical cyclone. This study numerically investigated the effects of convective processes on the evolution and intensification of Cyclone Pam and the resulting strong winds with the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model through examining sensitivities to cloud microphysics schemes. The numerical simulations successfully reproduced the eastward propagation of the MJO and the aggregation of convective clouds that transformed to a tropical cyclone. It was found that microphysics processes affect the diabatic heating and therefore the evolution of tropical convection into a tropical cyclone. The potential instability for convective development and the actual development of deep cumulus clouds both contribute to the sensitivity of the simulated TC to the choice of the cloud microphysics schemes. Even with such sensitivity, this study successfully reproduced the cyclone track accurately in all the experiments and therefore is able to generate consistent hazard information from the cyclone.

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Seasonal Environmental Characteristics for the Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Indian Ocean during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Field Experiment

Cited by 6 publications

References 39 publications

Influence of water vapor distribution on the simulated track of Typhoon Hato (2017)

Influence of water vapor distribution on the simulated track of Typhoon Hato (2017)

Recent emergence of CAT5 tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean

The evolution and intensification of Cyclone Pam (2015) and resulting strong winds over the southern Pacific islands

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