Seasonal factors influencing the failure of buried water reticulation pipes

Gould, Scott; Boulaire, Fanny; Burn, Stewart; Zhao, Xiao Ling; Kodikara, Jayantha

doi:10.2166/wst.2011.507

Cited by 40 publications

(33 citation statements)

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“…Based on the survey conducted in water supply companies the causes of failure are the following: the environment (5%), materials (30%), the degree of protection (20%) and man (45%) [16]. Some of the significant failure factors that contribute to failure in water supply network are the age [17], diameter and material of pipe [18,19], ground conditions, operating pressure [20], temperature in the supply network [21], climatic change [22,23], possible external load [24] or combined internal pressure and external loading [25], random events [26,27], temporal clustering [28] and the course of failure [29,30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure analysis and assessment on the exemplary water supply network

Pietrucha-Urbanik

2015

Engineering Failure Analysis

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure analysis and assessment on the exemplary water supply network

Pietrucha-Urbanik

2015

Engineering Failure Analysis

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“…Maintaining the thesis that as the temperature increases the failure rate decreases [35], it was assumed that for the highest temperature covered by the analysis, i.e., <25;26) • C, the air temperature does not affect the size of the failure rate. This assumption was also presented in [32,36].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure Analysis of the Water Supply Network in the Aspect of Climate Changes on the Example of the Central and Eastern Europe Region

2019

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The consequences of climate changes are felt by society every day. A sudden increase or decrease in air temperature, increasingly frequent, extreme weather phenomena can cause enormous economic damage to countries and cities. The occurrence of random weather phenomena and their negative impact on technical infrastructure nowadays are the basic problem related to ensuring the safety of the functioning of each system. Climate changes and significant air temperature amplitudes have a direct impact on the functioning of the critical infrastructure of cities, which includes collective water supply systems (CWSS). The paper presents the impact of climate change on the failure of a water supply network. Correlation between failure rate and air temperature was determined. This was used to determine the number of failures for the near 2036–2050 and distant 2086–2100 future in terms of climate change (temperature increase). The results confirm the thesis known from the literature that the failure rate decreases as the temperature increases. For forecasted periods as a result of temperature rise due to climate change, the reduction of the number of water pipe failures is expected in the range of 1.22% to 2.35% for the 2036–2050 period and from 2.96% to 8.66% for the 2086–2100 period, depending on the development of Representative CO2 Concentration Scenarios (RCP). The decrease in the total number of failures will have an impact on the increase in the reliability and safety of water supply to consumers.

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“…The water pipe breakage forecasting has been studied over the past few decades using a variety of methods and frameworks, ranging from physical models [6,10] to machine learning models [14]. Nevertheless, physical models for the failure forecasting process require extensive information and data, and include uncertainties that can accumulate errors during the modeling process.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Water Pipe Condition Assessment: A Semiparametric Model Using Gaussian Process and Survival Analysis

Weeraddana

Hapuarachchi

Kumarapperuma

et al. 2020

Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining

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The maintenance and renewal of water mains demand substantial financial investments, and direct inspection of all water mains in a distribution system is extremely expensive. Therefore, a cost effective break mitigation technique such as a failure forecasting model that allows one to predict the water mains failure likelihood, would reduce the negative social impact and the cost to serve. We introduce a semiparametric Bayesian model for pipeline failure forecasting. The model is centred on a nonparametric Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and uses a parametric survival model to capture the long-term survival probability using domain knowledge. The parametric element in our model allows the inclusion of survival probability, while the nonparametric part allows us to handle covariates and to employ incomplete prior knowledge about pipe failures. We apply our model to the proactive maintenance problem using a real dataset from a water utility in Australia. The results demonstrate that, our model performs better than competing models such as Support Vector Regression, Poisson regression, Weibull, Gradient Boosting, and GPR, leading to substantial savings on reactive repairs and maintenance. Our water pipeline failure prediction models have been deployed in three states across Australia, and are being monitored by each water authority.

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Seasonal factors influencing the failure of buried water reticulation pipes

Cited by 40 publications

References 0 publications

Failure analysis and assessment on the exemplary water supply network

Failure analysis and assessment on the exemplary water supply network

Failure Analysis of the Water Supply Network in the Aspect of Climate Changes on the Example of the Central and Eastern Europe Region

Long-Term Water Pipe Condition Assessment: A Semiparametric Model Using Gaussian Process and Survival Analysis

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