Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher‐Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

Dalelane, Clementine; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Fröhlich, Kristina

doi:10.1029/2020gl088717

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…As Table 7 indicates, the winter EOFs used in this paper are similar to the EOFs obtained by Dalelane et al (2020), and both the summer and winter EOFs are similar to those used by Hall and Hanna (2018). However, Dalelane et al (2020) focused on case studies of European winters, rather than the systematic analysis of correlations between EOFs and temperature and precipitation used in this study. When Golian et al (2022) derived winter EOFs using MSLP rather than GPH, using the seasonal forecast models GloSea5 and SEAS5, the anomaly patterns were very different from the EOFs obtained here, suggesting that the EOFs that are generated can be sensitive to the methodology used.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

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North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices: Links with summer and winter temperature and precipitation in north‐west Europe, including persistence and variability

Simpson,

Hanna,

Baker

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Variability in seasonal weather in north‐west Europe is substantially determined by jet stream variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been well studied as a key representation of this jet stream variability, but other circulation indices are also important. Here the first three principal component empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), which broadly correspond to the NAO, the East Atlantic pattern (EA) and Scandinavian pattern (SCA), as well as jet speed and latitude, are correlated with temperature and precipitation anomalies over Europe with a focus on north‐west Europe, as well as measures of persistence and variability. In high summer (July and August), all three of the principal EOFs are significantly correlated with extreme temperatures in large areas of northern Europe. In winter, for much of north‐west Europe, both temperatures and precipitation are positively correlated with the jet speed, and precipitation is negatively correlated with EOF3. There is some non‐stationarity in some of the relationships, notably between winter precipitation and EOF1, and between July/August precipitation and EOF2. In addition to single variate correlations, multiple correlation coefficients are also used to determine areas of significant correlation when combining two or three of the circulation indices. The multiple correlation analyses show that combining the three EOFs produces significant correlations with temperature and precipitation over much of Europe. These analyses provide scope for using seasonal forecasts to predict likely temperature and precipitation anomalies based on predicting the atmospheric circulation anomalies and downscaling them. Improved seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation, including persistence and variability, will be useful to a number of users, such as agrifood, transport, energy supply and insurance.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices: Links with summer and winter temperature and precipitation in north‐west Europe, including persistence and variability

Simpson,

Hanna,

Baker

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Moreover, in our recent study on subsampling using other, in addition to NAO, modes of SLP variability (see Supporting Information P.1. in Dalelane et al, 2020), we show that, indeed, those predictors are robust also for an extended period of analysis from 1958 until now.…”

Section: Predictors Of the Naosupporting

confidence: 56%

Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Dobrynin

Düsterhus

Fröhlich

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO‐dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi‐model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi‐model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.

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The DWD climate predictions website: Towards a seamless outlook based on subseasonal, seasonal and decadal predictions

et al. 2023

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Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher‐Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

Cited by 5 publications

References 21 publications

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices: Links with summer and winter temperature and precipitation in north‐west Europe, including persistence and variability

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices: Links with summer and winter temperature and precipitation in north‐west Europe, including persistence and variability

Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

The DWD climate predictions website: Towards a seamless outlook based on subseasonal, seasonal and decadal predictions

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