Seasonal heat and freshwater cycles in the Arctic Ocean in CMIP5 coupled models

Ding, Yanni; Carton, James A.; Chepurin, Gennady A.; Steele, Michael; Häkkinen, Sirpa

doi:10.1002/2015jc011124

Cited by 9 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The model's time-mean integrated Arctic FWC is 109,000 km 3 (Figure 1a), which is close to that estimated from recent observations (101,000 km 3 ; Haine et al, 2015). The amplitude of the seasonal cycle ( Figure 1b) is about 10% of this total, in accordance with observations (Serreze et al, 2006) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models (Ding et al, 2016). There is a minimum in March and a maximum in September, in antiphase with the freshwater stored as sea ice, as water is exchanged between the two phases over the seasonal cycle with some lost from the Arctic due to ice export.…”

Section: Seasonal and Interannual Fwc Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 87%

“…There is a minimum in March and a maximum in September, in antiphase with the freshwater stored as sea ice, as water is exchanged between the two phases over the seasonal cycle with some lost from the Arctic due to ice export. The same factors are found to determine the seasonal cycle in Arctic FWC in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models (Ding et al, 2016). The same factors are found to determine the seasonal cycle in Arctic FWC in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models (Ding et al, 2016).…”

Section: Seasonal and Interannual Fwc Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 59%

“…Precipitation minus evaporation, together with river run-off, also contribute to the seasonal cycle, both peaking during the summer, and important principally in localized regions on the shelves (Figure 1d). The same factors are found to determine the seasonal cycle in Arctic FWC in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models (Ding et al, 2016).…”

Section: Seasonal and Interannual Fwc Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 68%

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Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content and Its Decadal Memory of Sea‐Level Pressure

Johnson

Cornish

Kostov

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Arctic freshwater content (FWC) has increased significantly over the last two decades, with potential future implications for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation downstream. We investigate the relationship between Arctic FWC and atmospheric circulation in the control run of a coupled climate model. Multiple linear lagged regression is used to extract the response of total Arctic FWC to a hypothetical step increase in the principal components of sea‐level pressure. The results demonstrate that the FWC adjusts on a decadal timescale, consistent with the idea that wind‐driven ocean dynamics and eddies determine the response of Arctic Ocean circulation and properties to a change in surface forcing, as suggested by idealized models and theory. Convolving the response of FWC to a change in sea‐level pressure with historical sea‐level pressure variations reveals that the recent observed increase in Arctic FWC is related to natural variations in sea‐level pressure.

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Section: Seasonal and Interannual Fwc Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Seasonal and Interannual Fwc Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 59%

Section: Seasonal and Interannual Fwc Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 68%

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Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content and Its Decadal Memory of Sea‐Level Pressure

Johnson

Cornish

Kostov

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…[], 8— Ding et al . [], 9— Yang et al . [], 10— Pemberton and Nilsson [], 11— Zhao and Timmermans [], 12— Bebieva and Timmermans [], 13— Jackson et al .…”

Section: From Aomip To Famosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ding et al . [] analyzed 14 CMIP5 coupled simulations to examine mechanisms regulating seasonal variability of ocean freshwater and heat. One of their key findings relates to how sea ice mediates the coupling between ocean heat and salt budgets, which, while intuitive, had not been specifically diagnosed in CMIP5 models before; strong seasonal heating reduces sea ice volume and strengthens the halocline stratification, which further strengthens warming and decreases sea ice (the feedback is also seen in reverse).…”

Section: Toward Better Understanding Of the Arctic Ice Ocean And Ecmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS): Past, current, and future activities

2016

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The overall goal of the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) community activities reported in this special issue is to enhance understanding of processes and mechanisms driving Arctic Ocean marine and sea ice changes, and the consequences of those changes especially in biogeochemical and ecosystem studies. Major 2013–2015 FAMOS accomplishments to date are: identification of consistent errors across Arctic regional models; approaches to reduce these errors, and recommendations for the most effective coupled sea ice‐ocean models for use in fully coupled regional and global climate models. 2013–2015 FAMOS coordinated analyses include many process studies, using models together with observations to investigate: dynamics and mechanisms responsible for drift, deformation and thermodynamics of sea ice; pathways and mechanisms driving variability of the Atlantic, Pacific and river waters in the Arctic Ocean; processes of freshwater accumulation and release in the Beaufort Gyre; the fate of melt water from Greenland; characteristics of ocean eddies; biogeochemistry and ecosystem processes and change, climate variability, and predictability. Future FAMOS collaborations will focus on employing models and conducting observations at high and very high spatial and temporal resolution to investigate the role of subgrid‐scale processes in regional Arctic Ocean and coupled ice‐ocean and atmosphere‐ice‐ocean models.

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Emergence of deep convection in the Arctic Ocean under a warming climate

2017

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The appearance of winter deep mixed layers in the Arctic Ocean under a warming climate is investigated with the HiGEM coupled global climate model. In response to a four times increase of atmospheric CO2 levels with respect to present day conditions, the Arctic Basin becomes seasonally ice-free. Its surface becomes consequently warmer and, on average, slightly fresher. Locally, changes in surface salinity can be far larger (up to 4 psu) than the basin-scale average, and of a different sign. The Canadian Basin undergoes a strong freshening, while the Eurasian Basin undergoes strong salinification. These changes are driven by the spin up of the surface circulation, likely resulting from the increased transfer of momentum to the ocean as sea ice cover is reduced. Changes in the surface salinity field also result in a change in stratification, which is strongly enhanced in the Canadian Basin and reduced in the Eurasian Basin. Reduction, or even suppression, of the stratification in the Eurasian Basin produces an environment that is favourable for, and promotes the appearance of, deep convection near the sea ice edge, leading to a significant deepening of winter mixed layers in this region (down to 1000 m). As the Arctic Ocean is transitioning toward a summer ice-free regime, new dynamical ocean processes will appear in the region, with potentially important consequences for the Arctic Ocean itself and for climate, both locally and on larger scales. 2015), indicating a decrease in the intensity of deep convection, and a decline in Arctic sea ice 46 cover (Stroeve et al., 2012), along with a northward migration of the sea ice edge into the Arctic 47 Ocean and the Barents Sea. Given that the location of deep convection sites is inherently tied to 48 the location of the sea ice edge, one might expect that new regions of deep convection could appear 49 at higher latitudes (Rainville et al., 2011). We expect that changes in deep convection location and 50 MLD will alter water mass properties and ultimately the deep branch of the AMOC (Rahmstorf, 51 2002; Heuzé, 2017) and ocean heat transport (Exarchou et al., 2015). 52 53 Today, the deepest layers of the Canadian and Eurasian Basins are mostly filled with dense waters 54 formed by brine rejection during sea ice formation on the continental shelves, or transformed in the 55 Barents Sea, or advected from the Greenland Sea through Fram Strait. These dense water masses 56 are eventually advected to the Nordic Seas through Fram Strait (Jones et al., 1995; Lique et al., 57 2010). As the sea ice edge migrates northward, the expectation is that the relative contribution 58 of deep waters formed locally in the Arctic Basin by open ocean convection will increase relative 59 to those waters formed on continental shelves or in the Barents Sea. In the deep Greenland Sea, 60 observations suggest that the amount of dense water originating from the deep Arctic has recently 61 increased compared to the dense water formed locally in the Greenland Sea during deep convection 62 events (Langeh...

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Seasonal heat and freshwater cycles in the Arctic Ocean in CMIP5 coupled models

Cited by 9 publications

References 42 publications

Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content and Its Decadal Memory of Sea‐Level Pressure

Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content and Its Decadal Memory of Sea‐Level Pressure

Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS): Past, current, and future activities

Emergence of deep convection in the Arctic Ocean under a warming climate

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