Seasonal Prediction of Distinct Climate Anomalies in Summer 2010 over the Tropical Indian Ocean and South Asia

Chowdary, Jasti S.; Attada, Raju; Lee, June‐Yi; Kosaka, Yu; Ha, Kyung‐Ja; Luo, Jing–Jia; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Lee, Doo-Young

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2014-101

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Because of the competitive mechanisms, it is very difficult to predict the linkage between the SAM and EAM at interannual and interdecadal timescales. The complex mechanisms have important implications for seasonal climate prediction of summer monsoon precipitation that remains very difficult Lee et al 2010;Kosaka et al 2012;Chowdary et al 2014 and many others). Although the CMIP5 models project an intensification of the negative SAM-EAM relationship in the future, the question of whether and to what extent the inter-connection would have changed under natural climate changes as opposed to anthropogenic climate changes remains a significant unsolved scientific issue.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is noted that this mechanism tends to amplify both the SAM and EAM precipitation simultaneously in the boreal summer. The ENSO efficiently excites the PJ teleconnection pattern associated with the WNPSH by inducing IO SST anomalies as an initial perturbation (Kosaka et al 2013;Chowdary et al 2014).…”

Section: Relative Role Of Tropical Sst Forcing In Numerical Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

Seo

Lee

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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with decaying El Niño and developing Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) warming anomalies; the other is the negative inter-correlation, resulting from developing El Niño and western Pacific SST cooling. The IODM mode also has a delayed impact on the negative connection by modulating Eurasian snow cover. The observed evidence reveals that the recent intensification of the negative relationship is attributable to the strengthening of the zonal SST gradient along the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and eastern Pacific. Analysis of experiments in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project further indicates a possibility for the negative linkage to be further enhanced under anthropogenic global warming with considerable interdecadal modulation in mid and late twentyfirst century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Relative Role Of Tropical Sst Forcing In Numerical Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

Seo

Lee

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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“…Midlatitude circulation triggered by a blocking high that caused the Russian heat wave also contributed to the Pakistan heavy rains downstream (Lau and Kim, 2012;Kosaka et al, 2012). Models show some skill in predicting the distinct seasonal rainfall anomalies in summer 2010 from the northern Arabian Sea to northern Pakistan, but this predictability comes from the tropical region (Chowdary et al, 2014). Models failed to predict the extreme intensity of northern Pakistan rainfall and positive precipitation anomalies in western Pakistan due to the inadequate representation of subtropical circulation, such as the Silk Road pattern.…”

Section: Midlatitudesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…13; Wu, 2002;Enomoto, 2004;Ding and Wang, 2005;Kosaka et al, 2009). In summer 2010, the Silk Road pattern caused an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over Japan and a cyclonic circulation over west-central Asia around 40 • N. Coupled models can simulate the stationary wave pattern of the Silk Road teleconnection (anchored by zonal variations of the Asian jet) but not the temporal phase (Kosaka et al, 2012;Chowdary et al, 2014). This indicates that the Silk Road pattern is an internal mode of the midlatitude atmosphere, whereas the zonal-mean component of the summer circumglobal teleconnection pattern is correlated with developing ENSO and hence is predictable (Lee et al, 2011.…”

Section: Midlatitudesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

et al. 2016

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ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Niño summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled oceanatmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Niño stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.

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“…Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses (2000,2013) pointed out that El Niño heating over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific leads to an anomalous WNPAC. In addition, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Indian Ocean, following the El Niño events, contributes to the persistence of WNPAC (e.g., Yang et al 2007;Li et al 2008a, b;Xie et al 2009;Ding et al 2010;Yun et al 2010;Chowdary et al 2010Chowdary et al , 2014Kosaka et al 2013). Thus, previous studies have focused mainly on the impacts of ENSO-related SST anomalies over the Pacific and Indian Ocean and less attention has been paid on the Atlantic Ocean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Chen

Lee

et al. 2014

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to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

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Seasonal Prediction of Distinct Climate Anomalies in Summer 2010 over the Tropical Indian Ocean and South Asia

Cited by 15 publications

References 64 publications

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

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