Seasonal prediction of June rainfall over South China: Model assessment and statistical downscaling

Ye, Kunhui; Tam, Chi‐Yung; Zhou, Wen; Sohn, Soo-Jin

doi:10.1007/s00376-014-4047-x

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 47 publications

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“…Various downscaling approaches have been used to bridge the gap between coarse-resolution model outputs and the need for regional-to-station-scale climate information (Kang et al 2007(Kang et al , 2009Min et al 2011b;Sohn et al 2013a, b;Tung et al 2013;Ye et al 2015). In particular, combined dynamical-statistical approaches are regarded as important tools for providing quantitative forecasts (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-lead station-scale prediction of hydrological droughts in South Korea based on bivariate pattern-based downscaling

Sohn

Tam

2015

Clim Dyn

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using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). To test its applicability and to investigate its related potential predictability, a perfect empirical model was first constructed with observed datasets as predictors. Next, a model output statistics (MOS)-type hybrid dynamical-statistical model was developed, using products from nine one-tier climate models as inputs. It was found that, with model sea-level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) as predictors, statistically downscaled MME (DMME) precipitation and temperature predictions were substantially improved compared to those based on raw MME outputs. Limitations and possible causes of error of such a dynamical-statistical model, in the current framework of dynamical seasonal climate predictions, were also discussed. Finally, the method was used to construct a dynamical-statistical system for 6 month-lead drought predictions for 60 stations in South Korea. DMME was found to give reasonably skillful long-lead forecasts of SPEI for winter to spring. Moreover, DMME-based products clearly outperform the raw MME predictions, especially during extreme wet years. Our results could lead to more reliable climatic extreme predictions for policymakers and stakeholders in the water management sector, and for better mitigation and climate adaptations. Keywords Multi-model ensemble (MME) · Downscaled MME (DMME) · Statistical downscaling · Bivariate and pattern-based downscaling · Drought prediction · Hydrological drought · Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) · Temperature and precipitation

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-lead station-scale prediction of hydrological droughts in South Korea based on bivariate pattern-based downscaling

Sohn

Tam

2015

Clim Dyn

Self Cite

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Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam

Phan-Van

Nguyen-Xuan

Nguyen

et al. 2018

Weather and Forecasting

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This study investigates the ability to apply National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) products and their downscaling by using the Regional Climate Model version 4.2 (RegCM4.2) on seasonal rainfall forecasts over Vietnam. First, the CFS hindcasts (CFS_Rfc) from 1982 to 2009 are used to assess the ability of the CFS to predict the overall circulation and precipitation patterns at forecast lead times of up to 6 months. Second, the operational CFS forecasts (CFS_Ope) and its RegCM4.2 downscaling (RegCM_CFS) for the period 2012–14 are used to derive seasonal rainfall forecasts over Vietnam. The CFS_Rfc and CFS_Ope are validated against the ECMWF interim reanalysis, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) analyzed rainfall, and observations from 150 meteorological stations across Vietnam. The results show that the CFS_Rfc can capture the seasonal variability of the Asian monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution. The higher-resolution RegCM_CFS product is advantageous over the raw CFS in specific climatic subregions during the transitional, dry, and rainy seasons, particularly in the northern part of Vietnam in January and in the country’s central highlands during July.

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Seasonal prediction of June rainfall over South China: Model assessment and statistical downscaling

Cited by 2 publications

References 47 publications

Long-lead station-scale prediction of hydrological droughts in South Korea based on bivariate pattern-based downscaling

Long-lead station-scale prediction of hydrological droughts in South Korea based on bivariate pattern-based downscaling

Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam

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