Seasonality in long-term trends of tropical intraseasonal wave activity

Keshav, Bibhuti Sharan; Landu, Kiranmayi

doi:10.1007/s00703-021-00844-8

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Using OLR and brightness temperature observations, it was shown 62 for the period from 1980–2016 that Madden–Julian Oscillations and equatorial Rossby waves were losing a frequency–wavenumber power while Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby–gravity waves, and tropical disturbance–like wave activity were gaining power. Recent study 63 based on the OLR data for the 40 year period from 1979 to 2018 indicates an increasing trend of equatorial waves in the boreal winter season over the Indian Ocean and West Pacific and large heterogeneity of trends in space and time. Future predictions are a concern.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent

Latos

Peyrillé²,

Lefort³

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

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Tropical cyclone Seroja was one of the first tropical cyclones to significantly impact Indonesian land, and the strongest one in such close proximity to Timor Island. In April 2021 Seroja brought historic flooding to near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor, as well as impacting Western Australia. Here we show that the unusual near-equatorial cyclogenesis in close proximity to a land mass was due to “perfect storm” conditions associated with multiple wave interactions. Specifically, this was associated with enhanced equatorial convection on the leading edge of a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. Within the MJO, the interaction between a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and two convectively coupled Kelvin waves span up the initial vortex and accelerated cyclogenesis. On average, such favorable atmospheric conditions can occur once per year. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of tropical cyclones over the Maritime Continent.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent

Latos

Peyrillé²,

Lefort³

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Using OLR and brightness temperature observations, it was shown[64] for the period from 1980 -2016 that Madden-Julian Oscillations and equatorial Rossby waves were losing a frequency-wavenumber power while Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby-gravity waves, and tropical disturbance-like wave activity were gaining power. Recent study[65] based on the OLR data for the 40 year period from 1979 to 2018 indicates an increasing trend of equatorial waves in the boreal winter season over the Indian Ocean and West Pacific and large heterogeneity of trends in space and time. Future predictions are a concern.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja - one of the first tropical cyclones to significantly impact Indonesian land

Latos

Peyrillé

Lefort

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tropical cylone Seroja was one of the first tropical cyclones to significantly impact Indonesian land and the strongest one in such close proximity to Timor Island. In April 2021 Seroja brought historic flooding to Indonesia and East Timor, as well as impacting Western Australia. Its genesis was associated with enhanced equatorial convection which was preceded by warm sea surface anomalies. This happened on the leading edge of a Madden-Julian Oscillation event. Within the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the interaction between convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave and two convectively coupled Kelvin waves created "perfect storm" conditions and led to cyclogensis. The development and consequences of TC Seroja were unusual for this part of the world. The question arises: to what extent could such strong storms in Indonesia become more common due to the climate change? It is argued that looking at tropical waves in the warmer climates may provide some insight into this complex problem.

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Seasonality in long-term trends of tropical intraseasonal wave activity

Cited by 2 publications

References 52 publications

The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent

The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent

The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja - one of the first tropical cyclones to significantly impact Indonesian land

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