Seasonality in Moisture Dynamics in the Walls of the rock-cut Churches in Lalibela, Ethiopia: Implications for Weathering

Taye, Blen; Viles, Heather; Orr, Scott Allan

doi:10.1080/15583058.2022.2142699

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The expanding religious and eco-tourist market and problems in achieving this sustainably [34,39] have also added to risk at the sites. Although there are some studies of climate effects at Dirre Sheikh Hussein, which is in a region susceptible to environmental change [24], and Lalibela [40], these remain limited. However, this study focuses on the pilgrims rather than the material heritage, so it considers the effect of a changing climate on their travels and experiences at these sacred sites.…”

Section: Aims and Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Pilgrimage to Shrines in Ethiopia

Brimblecombe,

Tola,

Richards

2023

Heritage

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Pilgrimages are an important part of our intangible heritage. These long journeys, often on foot, can be sensitive to weather, so this study sees pilgrimages as providing an opportunity to look at the way in which changes in climate affect intangible heritage. It examines two important Ethiopian pilgrimages that involve hundreds of thousands who travel each year to Dirre Sheikh Hussein, seen as the country’s Mecca, and Lalibela, its Jerusalem. These journeys in the cold season (December–February) often exceed 1000 km in length and expose pilgrims to low temperatures in mountain areas. Our analysis uses daily output data from ERA-5 and CHIRPS for rainfall and temperature across the recent past (1984–2014) and an ensemble of climate models (CMIP6) for the periods 1984–2014 and 2035–2065, to explore changes in nighttime low temperature, daytime high temperature and the potential increase in days of heavy rain in mountain areas. Additionally, we examine the increasing number of very hot days affecting travel to and from Dirre Sheikh Hussein. The pilgrims experience weather events and not long-term average conditions, so extremes and spells of inclement weather can affect their experience. Management plans for the regions have yet to address likely changes to climate at these religious sites, or consider how strategic planning might mitigate their impact on pilgrims.

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Section: Aims and Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Pilgrimage to Shrines in Ethiopia

Brimblecombe,

Tola,

Richards

2023

Heritage

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“…Our results highlight the importance of using time periods that are appropriate to the process being studied. The use of regionspeci c seasons, such as used by Taye et al (2022) to analyse their results within the context of the Ethiopian rainy seasons, means that interpretation can be tightly focused on a locally relevant climate process rather than being constrained by an arbitrary 3-month period.…”

Section: Climate Parameters and Cultural Practicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ability of GCMs to represent climate during pilgrimages in Ethiopia

Richards,

Brimblecombe

2023

Preprint

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Climate influences human actions, including our cultural practices. Pilgrimages provide an important way for people to strengthen their spiritual or religious beliefs and are usually manifested as a journey to a sacred place, with Ethiopia notable for famous religious destinations. The conditions experienced by pilgrims are likely to change in a warming world, potentially making such journeys more arduous. Climate models struggle to reproduce key features of African climate with areas of extreme orography, such as the Highlands of Ethiopia, posing a significant challenge. Our study assesses (i) the sensitivity of climate parameters to the length of time considered within the dry season (Bega) and (ii) the ability of three global climate models, GCMs (HadGEM3-GC31-MM, CMCC-ESM2 and NorESM2-MM) to capture climate by comparing it to the ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS datasets. Results show the importance of adjusting the length of time so it is relevant to the process or social practice being studied, which might not map onto the three-month seasons traditionally used in climate research. Three of the six climate parameters assessed (minimum and maximum daily temperature and the number of rain days greater 1 mm) were successfully captured by the GCMs. This means these parameters could be used to assess future impacts of climate change on the climate experienced by pilgrims in Ethiopia.

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“…Weather and climate processes play important roles in driving the deterioration of historic buildings and archaeological sites (e.g., Grossi et al, 2007; Sabbioni et al, 2010; Sesana et al, 2021; Taye et al, 2022). Over the last few decades, there has been much interest in the way in which climate change is likely to affect tangible heritage, with a particular focus on built heritage (Bonazza et al, 2009; ICOMOS, 2021; Leissner et al, 2015; Orr et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling temperature‐precipitation pressures on African timber heritage

Richards,

Brimblecombe,

Engelstaedter

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate parameters can be refined for use in a heritage context to capture climate‐based deterioration processes occurring on buildings and sites. The Scheffer index, which combines temperature and rainfall components, is commonly used as a metric of wood decay risk. Understanding how the index is likely to change is important for developing effective conservation strategies for timber heritage. However, there has been limited research assessing the agreement between climate model outputs for such heritage‐based metrics. This is especially important where capturing projected rainfall is known to be problematic, such as over regions of Africa. We address the following questions: to what extent is there model agreement over continental Africa for (i) the magnitude of the Scheffer index and (ii) the direction of change of future Scheffer indices. A multi‐model ensemble (MME) approach was used utilizing 13 CMIP6 models under the SPS585 scenario. Results showed that rainfall was important in determining the magnitude of the index. In regions where rainfall systems are not well captured by climate models, such as in eastern Africa, there was a large range in projected Scheffer values. To help with the transferability of the index to regions with a tropical climate, we suggest the addition of a Scheffer threshold for a very‐high risk of deterioration. Projections of future change to the index were found to be predominantly driven by changes in temperature, rather than rainfall. While there was considerable disagreement in the simulated magnitude of the Scheffer index, there was good agreement between models over the direction of change across Equatorial Africa, where the Scheffer index is greatest. Such agreement between models suggests that heritage decision makers can utilize the direction of change projected by models when shaping future conservation plans.

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Seasonality in Moisture Dynamics in the Walls of the rock-cut Churches in Lalibela, Ethiopia: Implications for Weathering

Cited by 3 publications

References 25 publications

Climate Change and Pilgrimage to Shrines in Ethiopia

Climate Change and Pilgrimage to Shrines in Ethiopia

Ability of GCMs to represent climate during pilgrimages in Ethiopia

Modelling temperature‐precipitation pressures on African timber heritage

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