Seasonality of acute kidney injury phenotypes in England: an unsupervised machine learning classification study of electronic health records

Abstract

Background: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is a multifactorial condition which presents a substantial burden to healthcare systems. There is limited evidence on whether it is seasonal. We sought to investigate the seasonality of AKI hospitalisations in England and use unsupervised machine learning to explore clustering of underlying comorbidities, to gain insights for future intervention. Methods: We used Hospital Episodes Statistics linked to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink to describe the overall incidence of AKI admissions between 2015-2019 weekly by demographic and admission characteristics. We carried out dimension reduction on 850 diagnosis codes using multiple correspondence analysis and applied k-means clustering to classify patients. We phenotype each group based on the dominant characteristics and describe the seasonality of AKI admissions by these different phenotypes. Findings: Between 2015-2019, weekly AKI admissions peaked in winter, with additional summer peaks related to periods of extreme heat. Winter seasonality was more evident in those diagnosed with AKI on admission. From the cluster classification we describe six phenotypes of people admitted to hospital with AKI. Among these, seasonality of AKI admissions was observed among people who we described as having a multimorbid phenotype, established risk factor phenotype, and general AKI phenotype. Interpretation: We demonstrate winter seasonality of AKI admissions in England, particularly among those with AKI diagnosed on admission, suggestive of community triggers. Differences in seasonality between phenotypes suggests some groups may be more likely to develop AKI as a result of these factors. This may be driven by underlying comorbidity profiles or reflect differences in uptake of seasonal interventions such as vaccines. Funding: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, a partnership between UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Imperial College London, and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, NIHR, UK Department of Health or UKHSA.