Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

doi:10.1002/lno.10557

Cited by 98 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The pattern of warming is complex and varies globally (O'Reilly et al, 2015), seasonally (Winslow, Read, Hansen, Rose, & Robertson, 2017), with lake size (Woolway et al, 2016), and vertically within lakes (Winslow, Read, Hansen, & Hanson, 2015). On average, surface summer water temperatures are warming at a global mean of 0.34°C per decade, which is likely to significantly change the physical structure of lakes (O'Reilly et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

et al. 2019

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Climate change is already having profound impacts upon the state and dynamics of lake ecosystems globally. A specific concern is that climate change will continue to promote the growth of phytoplankton, particularly blooms of toxic cyanobacteria, via lake physical processes including warming surface waters and shallowing of the mixed layer. These two mechanisms will have different impacts on lake phytoplankton communities, but their inter‐connectedness has made it difficult to disentangle their independent effects. We fill this knowledge gap by performing 1666 numerical modelling experiments with the phytoplankton community model, PROTECH, in which we separated the independent effects on lake phytoplankton of temperature change and changes in the depth of the surface mixed layer. Given the large global abundance of small lakes (<1 km2) and the importance of their ecosystems in global processes and budgets, we used a small meso‐eutrophic lake as an example study site for the modelling experiments. Increasing the lake temperature and positioning the mixed layer at a shallower depth had different ecological impacts, with warming typically resulting in more biomass and a dominance of cyanobacteria. The response to mixed depth shallowing depended on the original depth where mixing occurred. As anticipated, where the original mixed depth was moderate (4–6 m) and there was a simultaneous increase in water temperature, cyanobacterial biomass increased. However, when the same absolute difference in shallowing and temperature increase were applied to a deeper mixed depth (9–13 m), lower cyanobacterial biomass resulted, owing to poorer conditions for low‐light tolerant cyanobacteria. Our study shows that the response of cyanobacterial blooms to climate‐induced warming and shallowing of mixed layers in lakes around the world will not be universal, but rather will be system‐specific, depending upon the average mixed layer depth of the lake in question and the light affinity of the dominant cyanobacteria species.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

et al. 2019

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“…Anthopogenic climate warming and associated shifts in precipitation patterns, coupled with the seasonality of these changes, have direct impacts on freshwater ecosystems (Huisman et al., ; Schneider & Hook, ; Winder & Sommer, ; Winslow, Read et al., ; Wrona et al., ). Regional (Torbick et al., ), continental (Gudmundsson et al., ; Rühland et al., ) and even potentially global‐scale (O'Reilly et al., ) influences of anthropogenic climate change on freshwater ecosystems are now emerging.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind induced impacts on hypolimnetic temperature and thermal structure of Candlewood Lake (Connecticut, U.S.A.) from 1985–2015

Siver

Marsicano

Lott

et al. 2018

Geography and Environment

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Wind induced impacts on hypolimnetic temperature and thermal structure of Candlewood Lake (Connecticut, U.S.A.) from Peter A. Climate change has affected freshwater lakes in many ways, including shifts in thermal structure, stability, ice cover, annual mixing regimes and length of the growing season, all of which impact ecosystem structure and function. We examine the impacts climate variables, especially wind speed, had on water temperature and thermal stratification at three sites in Candlewood Lake (Connecticut, U.S.A.)between 1985 and 2015. Despite the lack of regional time-related trends in air temperature or precipitation over the 31 year period, there was a significant decline in wind speed during spring and summer months, with a mean decline of 31% over the study period. Even though a wide range in mean July epilimnetic temperature (22.8-28.2°C) was observed, there was no trend over time. In contrast, a significant cooling trend was recorded for the hypolimnion that was highly correlated with the declining wind speed. Decreasing wind speed was also correlated with an increase in the strength of the thermocline estimated from maximum RTRM values. Despite the lack of a warming trend in surface waters over the entire study period, the strength of summer thermal stability estimated using total RTRM scores was highly correlated with epilimnetic temperature. The potential consequences of declining wind speed, a cooling hypolimnion, and a stronger thermocline are discussed. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, hypolimnetic cooling, relative thermal resistance to mixing, thermal structure, wind speed | INTRODUCTIONAnthopogenic climate warming and associated shifts in precipitation patterns, coupled with the seasonality of these changes, have direct impacts on freshwater ecosystems (Huisman et al., 2004;Schneider & Hook, 2010;Winder & Sommer, 2012;Wrona et al., 2005). Regional (Torbick et al., 2016), continental (Gudmundsson et al., 2017R€ uhland et al., 2015) and even potentially global-scale (O'Reilly et al., 2015) influences of anthropogenic climate changeThis is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. The information, practices and views in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Royal Geographical Society (with IBG).

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“…; Magee and Wu ; Winslow et al. ). Reduced winter ice cover is also causing an earlier onset of lake stratification in the Great Lakes (Austin and Colman ) and stronger stratification in Wisconsin (Winslow et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reduced winter ice cover is also causing an earlier onset of lake stratification in the Great Lakes (Austin and Colman ) and stronger stratification in Wisconsin (Winslow et al. ). Summer water temperatures have increased at a faster rate than regional air temperatures (Dobiesz and Lester ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow, Water Temperature, Saltwater Intrusion

Paul

Coffey

Stamp

et al. 2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on United States (U.S.) water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al., we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest, and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid‐Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

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Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Cited by 98 publications

References 56 publications

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

Modelling lake cyanobacterial blooms: Disentangling the climate‐driven impacts of changing mixed depth and water temperature

Wind induced impacts on hypolimnetic temperature and thermal structure of Candlewood Lake (Connecticut, U.S.A.) from 1985–2015

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow, Water Temperature, Saltwater Intrusion

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