Second Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications

Abstract

The historical relevance of the Thera (Santorini) volcanic eruption is unclear because of major dating uncertainty. Long placed ~1500 BCE and during the Egyptian New Kingdom (starts ~1565–1540 BCE) by archaeologists, 14C pointed to dates ≥50–100 years earlier during the preceding Second Intermediate Period. Several decades of debate have followed with no clear resolution of the problem—despite wide recognition that this uncertainty undermines an ability to synchronize the civilizations of the eastern Mediterranean in the mid-second millennium BCE and write wider history. Recent work permits substantial progress. Volcanic CO2 was often blamed for the discrepancy. However, comparison of 14C dates directly associated with the eruption from contemporary Aegean contexts—both on and remote from Thera—can now remove this caveat. In turn, using Bayesian analysis, a revised and substantially refined date range for the Thera eruption can be determined, both through the integration of the large 14C dataset relevant to the Thera eruption with the local stratigraphic sequence on Thera immediately prior to the eruption, and in conjunction with the wider stratigraphically-defined Aegean archaeological sequence from before to after the eruption. This enables a robust high-resolution dating for the eruption ~1606–1589 BCE (68.3% probability), ~1609–1560 BCE (95.4% probability). This dating clarifies long-disputed synchronizations between Aegean and East Mediterranean cultures, placing the eruption during the earlier and very different Second Intermediate Period with its Canaanite-Levantine dominated world-system. This gives an importantly altered cultural and historical context for the New Palace Period on Crete and the contemporary Shaft Grave era in southern Greece. In addition, the revised dating, and a current absence of southern Aegean chronological data placed soon afterwards, highlights a period of likely devastating regional eruption impact in the earlier-mid 16th century BCE southern Aegean.

Olive shrub buried on Therasia supports a mid-16th century BCE date for the Thera eruption

“…A simple ordered sequence 12 (based on the indisputable fact that the inner-most sampled material from the olive is older than the outer-most material) suggests, at 95.4% (2- ) probability using IntCal20, that the sample died either between 1621 and 1598 BCE (23.2%) or between 1593 and 1540 BCE (72.3%). This is in general agreement with results from more complex modelling of a wide range of short-lived pre- and post-Theran eruption materials 9 . Without new radiocarbon dating evidence this is the current limit of what is possible for Thera in terms of radiocarbon dating.…”

“…5 d–g). This result is significant because it suggests an increased likelihood that Thera erupted in the mid to later 16th century BCE, consistent with certain archaeological arguments, including the controversial 9 1524 BCE date 7 , 15 . Caution is necessary however in interpreting the result for 88-3 as it is based on two radiocarbon measurements that are identical within errors, which fall fully on the radiocarbon plateau and are separated by only a few possible growth bands.…”

“…According to the archaeological chronology of the southern Aegean (based on pottery types) the eruption occurred at the transition between the Late Minoan IA and Late Minoan IB period and was initially speculated to have led to the fall of the Minoan civilization on Crete 4 . The size, impact, and, critically, the exact date of the Thera eruption, have been widely discussed in the literature 5 – 9 , with persistent differences between the calibrated age distributions based on radiocarbon ( 14 C) determinations of materials buried by eruption deposits 9 – 13 , placing the eruption around 1600 BCE, and archaeologically-based arguments for an eruption date after the start of the New Kingdom in Egypt. While some studies suggest that the New Kingdom could have begun c.1560 BCE 8 or a decade or so earlier 14 , conventional dating places it ‘after 1540 BCE’, with some arguing for 1524 BCE as an exact date for the eruption 7 , 15 .…”

“…While the potential effects of this, plus mixed age deposits in archaeological contexts, can be well accounted for within programs such as OxCal 18 , 21 , CALIB 22 and CalPal 23 , subjective decisions on whether to model averaged values 24 , which data to include, how to model them, and which archaeological observations to incorporate all have an impact on the end date range, resulting in a number of possible dating placements proposed for essentially the same materials (e.g. 9 , 13 , 25 , 26 ).

Figure 1 The location of Thera ( a , b ), Koimisis ( c ) and the olive shrub ( d , e ).

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Bayesian Modeling of a Peripheral Middle Bronze Age Settlement at Zahrat Adh-Dhra‘ 1, Jordan

“…Modeling of the Middle Bronze Age habitation of ZAD 1 appears amid increasingly ambitious efforts over the last decade to synthesize radiocarbon-based chronologies across regions of the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East previously separated according to geography and archaeological tradition (e.g., Lebeau 2011; Peltenburg 2013; Finkbinder et al 2015). Among recent breakthroughs, Manning (2022) models the chronological linchpin eruption of Thera in the early to mid-16th century cal BCE, thereby providing another instance of shifted historical correlation between the ancient Mediterranean world and Egypt. Similarly, Herrmann et al (2023) use modeled AMS ages from Zincirli, Turkey to connect Mesopotamian and Eastern Mediterranean chronologies at the close of the Middle Bronze Age in the decades following the abandonment of ZAD 1.…”