Secular Trends in Tuberculosis during the Second Epidemiological Transition: A Swiss Perspective

Holloway, Kara L.; Henneberg, Renata J.; Lopes, Miguel de Barros; Staub, Kaspar; Link, Karl; Rühli, Frank J; Henneberg, Maciej

doi:10.4236/aa.2013.32011

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Hopewell (2018) made the same observations of TB mortality for the United States and noted a further decline of overall mortality to nearly zero by 1960, but attributed the decline primarily to the effects of the First World War on disease spread and health and only acknowledged the 1918 influenza as a potential "confounder." Analyses of mortality in other locations in the West, including Switzerland (Holloway et al, 2013), Germany (Loddenkemper & Konietzko, 2018), Austria (Wolf & Junker, 2018), the United Kingdom (Davies & Trafford, 2018), and the Netherlands (van Cleef et al, 2018), show a similar decrease in TB mortality. There are a few locations in which mortality did not experience such a decrease, including Malta (Tripp & Sawchuk, 2017), Japan (Mori & Ishikawa, 2018), and South Africa (Beyers & Gie, 2018).…”

mentioning

confidence: 80%

“…As outlined previously, there appear to be two distinct groups that emerge in the discussion of post-1918 influenza pandemic TB mortality patterns: one characterized by large decreases in TB mortality over the following decades as observed in Switzerland (Holloway et al, 2013), Germany (Loddenkemper & Konietzko, 2018), Austria (Wolf & Junker, 2018), the UK (Davies & Trafford, 2018), and the Netherlands (van Cleef et al, 2018), and a second that did not have observable significant decreases (Malta [Tripp & Sawchuk, 2017], Japan [Mori & Ishikawa, 2018], and South Africa [Beyers & Gie, 2018]). Newfoundland, ultimately, aligns most closely with this second group.…”

Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 93%

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The 1918 influenza pandemic did not accelerate tuberculosis mortality decline in early‐20th century Newfoundland: Investigating historical and social explanations

Doren

Sattenspiel

2021

American J Phys Anthropol

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Objectives: The selective mortality hypothesis of tuberculosis after the 1918 influenza pandemic, laid out by Noymer and colleagues, suggests that acute exposure or pre-existing infection with tuberculosis (TB) increased the probability of pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic, leading to a hastened decline of TB mortality in post-pandemic years. This study describes cultural determinants of the post-pandemic TB mortality patterns in Newfoundland and evaluates whether there is support for this observation. Materials and methods: Death records and historical documents from the ProvincialArchives of Newfoundland and Labrador were used to calculate age-standardized island-wide and sex-based TB mortality, as well as region-level TB mortality, for 1900-1939. The Joinpoint Regression Program (version 4.8.0.1) was used to estimate statistically significant changes in mortality rates.Results: Island-wide, females had consistently higher TB mortality for the duration of the study period and a significant shift to lower TB mortality beginning in 1928.There was no similar predicted significant decline for males. On the regional level, no models predicted a significant decline after the 1918 influenza pandemic, except for the West, where significant decline was predicted in the late-1930s. Discussion: Although there was no significant decline in TB mortality observed immediately post-pandemic, as has been shown for other Western nations, the female post-pandemic pattern suggests a decline much later. The general lack of significant decrease in TB mortality rate is likely due to Newfoundland's poor nutrition and lack of centralized healthcare rather than a biological interaction between P&I and TB.

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mentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 93%

The 1918 influenza pandemic did not accelerate tuberculosis mortality decline in early‐20th century Newfoundland: Investigating historical and social explanations

Doren

Sattenspiel

2021

American J Phys Anthropol

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“…The post‐pandemic age‐based pooled mortality curves also indicate that even in the 1930s, TB was still very present, and only the Avalon Peninsula no longer showed hints of high mortality in ages 20–40. Given the fact that the decline of the contribution of TB to overall mortality was one of the primary drivers of the total decrease in infectious disease mortality during the second epidemiological transition (Holloway et al, 2013; McKeown, 1976; Szreter, 2002) and Schmidt and Sattenspiel's (2017) observation that the second epidemiological transition had only just begun in the Avalon Peninsula (specifically St. John's) but nowhere else on the island yet, this observation is well supported. Further, these results start to show the separation of age‐based mortality between the single urbanizing region of the island compared to the rural regions, pointing toward growing inequalities between urban and rural spaces.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contextualizing pandemics: Respiratory survivorship before, during, and after the 1918 influenza pandemic in Newfoundland

Doren

Kelmelis

2022

American Journal of Biological Anthropology

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Background Research on the 1918 influenza pandemic often focuses exclusively on pandemic years, reducing the potential long‐term insights about the pandemic. It is critical to frame the 1918 pandemic within the underlying population dynamics, health, and sociocultural context to understand what factors contributed to pandemic mortality and survivorship, with respect to observed inequality, and consequences of the pandemic. Materials & Methods Individual death records and censuses from The Rooms Provincial Archives and Memorial University of Newfoundland Digital Archives for three major causes of death—influenza and pneumonia; tuberculosis; and pooled bronchitis, measles, and whooping cough—were collected for three periods in the early 20th century: pre‐pandemic (1909–11), pandemic (March 1918–Janaury 1919), and post‐pandemic (1933–1935). We calculated pooled age‐standardized mortality rates and changes in pre‐ to post‐pandemic mortality rates by region. We fit Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards models to each period, controlling for age, cause of death, and region. Results Pandemic mortality was higher than that of pre‐ and post‐pandemic periods. Post‐pandemic mortality was significantly lower than pre‐pandemic mortality in all regions, except Western Newfoundland. Survival was lowest during the pandemic and increased significantly post‐pandemic (p < 0.0001), with no significant differences among regions during the pandemic (p = 0.32). Significant differences in survivorship in 1933–1935 were driven by increasing differences in survivorship for P&I among the regions more than other causes of death. Discussion Myopic perspectives of pandemics can obscure our understanding of observed outcomes. Inequalities in respiratory disease mortality are evident in pre‐ and post‐pandemic periods, but these would have been missed in investigations of the pandemic period alone.

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“…In a large study assessing changes in mortality for cohorts in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, female age-based mortality peaked around 30 years in England & Wales, Massachusetts, other U.S. registration states, Australia, Norway, Scotland, and Ireland (Davenport, 2013). In Switzerland, the most common age at death in females was even lower, around 15-29 years, between 190015-29 years, between and 196015-29 years, between (Gubéran, 1980Holloway et al, 2013), and the U.S. and Japan appeared to have similarly low age-based mortality (Doege, 1965;Johnston, 1995). Overall, as the epidemiological transition progressed through Western Europe and some North American regions, the research indicates that mortality peaked in ages 15-44, but steadily increased throughout the middle of the twentieth century.…”

Section: Tuberculosis and The Second Epidemiological Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The difference between male and female TB outcomes has been relatively well studied in many different fields including epidemiology (Rose et al, 2001), genetics (Gupta et al, 2022), immunology (Bothamley, 2021), demography (Davenport, 2013), and anthropology (Holloway et al, 2013; Tripp & Sawchuk, 2017). From a biological standpoint, there is some research that suggests, over the course of our mutual evolutionary history with the Mycobacterium tuberculosis pathogen, the causal organism of TB, that females have incurred genetic protection against intracellular infections like those that can lead to TB disease (Cardona et al, 2020; Nhamoyebonde & Leslie, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sex‐based tuberculosis mortality in Newfoundland, 1900–1949: Implications for populations in transition

van Doren

2023

American J Hum Biol

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ObjectiveDuring the second epidemiological transition, tuberculosis (TB) is one disease that declined substantially enough to reduce all‐cause mortality. Sex‐based differences in TB mortality may reveal an important dimension of population health transitions between the urbanizing and rural regions of Newfoundland.Materials and MethodsFor the island of Newfoundland, yearly age‐standardized sex‐based TB mortality rates were calculated using individual death records from 1900 to 1949 (n = 30 393). Multiple linear regression models predict the relative rates (RR) of sex‐based mortality and the absolute difference between males and females while controlling for time and region (the urbanizing Avalon Peninsula or rural Newfoundland). Multiple linear regression models also predict the median age at death from TB while controlling for time, region, and sex to assess if TB was shifting to an older adult disease compared to those typically afflicted in ages 20–44.ResultsFemale TB mortality was relatively and absolutely higher than males; additionally, RR and absolute differences between male and female mortality were significantly lower in rural Newfoundland than the Avalon Peninsula. Median age at death for males was significantly higher than females, and differences in median age at death increased over time.DiscussionThe historically high prevalence of TB throughout Newfoundland, including domestic, social, and public health responsibilities of women, likely contributed to increased exposure and transmission, leading to higher observed mortality. Sex‐based TB outcomes should be considered in the discussion of the progression of the epidemiological transition as dynamic inequalities that do not necessarily fit contemporary generalizations of sex‐based TB epidemiology.

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Secular Trends in Tuberculosis during the Second Epidemiological Transition: A Swiss Perspective

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

The 1918 influenza pandemic did not accelerate tuberculosis mortality decline in early‐20th century Newfoundland: Investigating historical and social explanations

The 1918 influenza pandemic did not accelerate tuberculosis mortality decline in early‐20th century Newfoundland: Investigating historical and social explanations

Contextualizing pandemics: Respiratory survivorship before, during, and after the 1918 influenza pandemic in Newfoundland

Sex‐based tuberculosis mortality in Newfoundland, 1900–1949: Implications for populations in transition

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