Securing wider EU commitment to the elimination of hepatitis C virus

Wedemeyer, Heiner; Tergast, Tammo L.; Lazarus, Jeffrey V.; Razavi, Homie; Bakoyannis, Kostas; Baptista‐Leite, Ricardo; Bartoli, Marco; Bruggmann, Philip; Buşoi, Cristian‐Silviu; Buti, María; Carballo, Manuel; Castéra, Laurent; Colombo, Massimo; Coutinho, Rodrigo Sousa; Dadon, Yuval; Esmat, Gamal; Esteban, Rafael; Farran, Joan Colom; Gillyon‐Powell, Mark; Goldberg, David J.; Hutchinson, Sharon; Janssen, Harry L.A.; Kalamitsis, George; Kondili, Loreta A.; Lambert, John S; Marinho, Rui Tato; Matičič, Mojca; Patricello, Aldo; Peck‐Radosavljevic, Markus; Pol, Stanislas; Poljak, Mario; Pop, Cora; Sokol, Tomislov; Sypsa, Vana; Tözün, Nurdan; Younossi, Zobair M.; Aghemo, Alessio; Papatheodoridis, George V.; Hatzakis, Angelos

doi:10.1111/liv.15446

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…17 towards HCV elimination. [30][31][32] Findings from our present nationwide forecasting analysis reveal that 5 years after the first cases of COVID-19 were detected in Italy, we observed an increase in approximately 470 deaths in the Inefficient scenario compared to the 'WHO Target' scenario, closely corroborating our previous estimates at this time point 20 confirming also previous estimates globally. 9 In accordance with our findings, Buti and colleagues forecasted 117 liver-related deaths, 73 HCC and 118 HCV-related DC in a cohort of 15 859 patients after a delay of 18 months due to the COVID-19 pandemic from January 2020 to June 2021.…”

Section: F I G U R Esupporting

confidence: 90%

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Forecasting the long‐term impact of COVID‐19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

Kondili,

Andreoni,

Aghemo

et al. 2023

Liver International

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BackgroundItaly has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for ‘Experimental screening’ for 2 years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long‐term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic in Italy.MethodsWe used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical ‘Inefficient’, ‘Efficient experimental’ and ‘WHO Target’ screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver‐related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050.ResultsThe ‘WHO Target’ scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both ‘Inefficient’ and ‘Efficient experimental’ screening up to 2030. A sharp (10‐fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the ‘WHO Target’ scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC <10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by ‘WHO Target,’ ‘Inefficient’ and ‘Efficient experimental’ scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver‐related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the ‘WHO Target’ scenario (52000) versus ‘Inefficient’ or ‘Efficient experimental’ scenarios (79 000 and 74 000 liver‐related deaths, respectively).ConclusionsOur estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long‐term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.

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Section: F I G U R Esupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Besides the direct impact of Sars‐Cov‐2 infection on morbidity and mortality, several downstream detrimental effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic have been felt on National Health Systems indicating the unmet need for an urgent reaction of policy makers towards HCV elimination 30–32 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the long‐term impact of COVID‐19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

Kondili,

Andreoni,

Aghemo

et al. 2023

Liver International

Self Cite

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“…However, Wedemeyer H. et al believe that, as of 2021, most countries are not on track to reach the 2030 HCV elimination targets set by the WHO. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a decrease in HCV diagnoses and fewer direct-acting antiviral treatment initiations in 2020 [ 29 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Possible Is the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis? An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease from Hepatitis B and C, 1990–2019

Alvis-Guzman,

Alvis-Zakzuk,

De la Hoz Restrepo

2024

Microorganisms

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This study assesses the feasibility of hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) elimination using an analysis of trends of epidemiology data (1990–2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significantly changing points in the trends of Age-standardized Prevalence Rates (ASPR) and Age-standardized Mortality Rates (ASMR) and to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for the period. The Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was used to analyze trends between countries. The total percentage change of the ASPR (2019/1990) was −31.4% and −12.8% for HBV and HCV worldwide, respectively; the rate ratio (HBV/HCV) was 2.5. Mortality had decreased for HBV but not for HCV. The total percentage change for the ASMR (2019/1990) was −26.7% and 10.0% for HBV and HCV, respectively. While the ASMR of HBV decreased, HCV increased during this period. The percentage change in ASMR of HBV was highest in countries with high–middle SDI and lowest in countries with high SDI. For HCV, the percentage change in ASMR was highest in countries with high SDI (increase), and only in countries with low SDI did it decrease. The global HBV and HCV rates have fallen with different AAPCs associated with the SDI. Despite the advances, there is still a long way to go to achieve the 2030 elimination goals. An important challenge is related to finding a way to speed up the yearly rate at which the decline is happening.

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“…Die Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) hat im Jahre 2016 Eliminationsziele festgelegt, um eine Bedrohung der öffentlichen Gesundheit durch Virushepatitiden zu adressieren. Für Europa hat die Hepatitis B & C Public Policy Association, ein Verein mit dem Ziel der Bekämpfung viraler Hepatitiden in der EU, bereits mehrfach Strategietreffen abgehalten, um Herausforderungen auf dem Weg zur Elimination zu erkennen, zu analysieren und zu bekämpfen sowie den internationalen Austausch von Ideen und Programmen zu fördern 4 5 . Am 09.02.2022 hat die Deutsche Leberstiftung – in Kooperation mit der Hepatitis B & C Public Policy Association ebenfalls ein Treffen durchgeführt, um auf nationaler Ebene den Austausch der verschiedenen Akteure wie Patientenvereinigungen, Ärzt*innen, Wissenschaftler*innen und Politiker*innen zu fördern.…”

Section: Virushepatitis – Ein (Un-)lösbares Problem?unclassified

unclassified

Strategietreffen: Virushepatitis in Deutschland eliminieren – Was ist zu tun?

et al. 2023

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Securing wider EU commitment to the elimination of hepatitis C virus

Abstract: In 2016, the Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association (HepBCPPA), gathered all the main stakeholders in the field of hepatitis C virus (HCV) to launch the now landmark HCV Elimination Manifesto, calling for the elimination of HCV in the EU by 2030.

Cited by 11 publications

References 59 publications

Forecasting the long‐term impact of COVID‐19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

Forecasting the long‐term impact of COVID‐19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

How Possible Is the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis? An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease from Hepatitis B and C, 1990–2019

Strategietreffen: Virushepatitis in Deutschland eliminieren – Was ist zu tun?

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